Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500: Recovers From Recent Decline?
The S&P 500 has started March on a bearish note, with the monthly candle currently down. The index is down about 3% for the month so far, though it was down as much as 4.59% before Friday’s bullish move helped it recover slightly. Ideally, we want to see the price find support and start moving upward again.
For 2025, the S&P is down around 4.42% and struggling to break past the 2024 high of $6,096. Earlier this year, in January and February, the price briefly broke above that level but couldn’t sustain it, leading to a correction. To resume upward momentum, the price needs to rise above the $6,000 mark, break past the 2024 high, and ultimately surpass the all-time high of $6,141 set in February.
On the weekly chart, the price has dropped toward the 50 simple moving average near $5,648. While it didn’t touch that level, it found support just above it and regained some upward momentum. Last week, the S&P closed down by 3.15%. On the daily chart, the trend shows a bearish outlook, with the price below the 20 and 50 simple moving averages but still above the 200 simple moving average. Since the all-time high on February 19, the index has declined by 7.79% at its lowest but is now down 6.11%, finding support near the 200 simple moving average. Ideally, we want the price to recover, bounce off the 200 SMA, and work its way back toward the all-time high.
Currently, the S&P is in a period of consolidation that started on December 6 after hitting $6,100. Since then, the price has been fluctuating between that level and support at around $5,773. To break out of this consolidation, the price needs to bounce off this support zone and move higher. This consolidation period has lasted 60 trading days, which means any breakout of the all-time high wouldn’t immediately confirm a continued bull trend. For confirmation, we would need to see a breakout above the all-time high, a pullback, and another breakout above a previous high to signal a long-term bullish trend.
Dow Jones
The Dow Jones is down about 2.56% so far in March and is struggling to break above its 2024 high of $45,073. It hit that level in November 2024, entered a period of consolidation, and has yet to break past its current all-time high.
In 2025, the Dow is up slightly by 0.61%. While it’s showing some progress, we’re watching to see if this momentum leads to new record highs.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 is down about 3.27% in March, currently holding support around the $20,000 mark, a key psychological level. Although it briefly dipped below this point earlier in the month, it quickly moved back above, showing $20,000 is acting as a solid support level. Ideally, this support could serve as a base for the Nasdaq to maintain its long-term upward trend.
At the same time, the Nasdaq is struggling to break past the 2024 high of $22,143. There was a small breakout above this level in February, but the price subsequently dropped and continued its correction into March.
FTSE 100: Bullish but Slowing Momentum?
The FTSE 100 is currently showing a bearish candle for March, down 1.46%, though the index is still up 6.25% overall. With this correction, it’s important to identify support levels on lower timeframes where the index could bounce and resume its bullish trend.
Momentum has slowed since the breakout from the previous consolidation zone. After the recent move up, we’re now seeing a pullback that could turn into another consolidation phase, following the familiar breakout-consolidation pattern.
On the daily timeframe, the price is below the 20 simple moving average but still above the 50 and 200 moving averages. The market is maintaining its pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Friday’s session showed a reversal candle, with the price finding support between the 20 and 50 moving averages. From here, we expect the price to bounce back and move above the all-time high of 8908 reached on March 3rd. If the price breaks and closes above this level, it will confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
McDonald’s (MCD)
McDonald’s stock has been on a long-term upward trend since hitting a low of around $12 in March 2003. Since then, it has risen by an impressive 2,504%. Along the way, the stock’s performance has been uneven, with periods of strong growth as well as significant pullbacks against the overall trend.
Recently, the stock experienced a decline of nearly 13% between October 2024 and January 2025. However, it has since rebounded, climbing 16%. So far in March, the stock is up 4.25%, bringing its 2025 gains to 10.7%. If this bullish momentum continues, further increases are likely.
Currently, the stock has surpassed its 2024 high of $317. To confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, we’ll need to see it close above that 2024 high on the monthly chart by the end of March. Historically, McDonald’s stock requires patience, as breakouts are often followed by periods of consolidation or sharp declines, with recovery taking time.
On the daily chart, the stock is trading above the 20, 50, and 200 simple moving averages. Friday saw a strong move, with the stock rising 3.46% and closing above its previous all-time high. Since it has just broken out of consolidation, the next steps will be crucial. To confirm the trend is likely to continue upward, we’ll need to see another move higher, a brief pullback, and then a breakout and close above a previous high.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Kroger (KR)
Kroger has been in a long-term bullish trend, though the chart has shown some choppiness at times. Recently, the stock broke out of a long-term consolidation range that had been in place since April 2022. During this time, the price was stuck between support at $41 (set in October 2022) and resistance at $62 (from April 2022). After briefly breaking above $62 in December 2024, the stock successfully closed above this level in February. So far in March, the stock has continued to move upward strongly.
Compared to the broader indices, which are currently bearish and correcting, Kroger is outperforming and continuing to hit new record highs. Historically, when a stock outperforms the indices, it tends to do even better when the overall market resumes its long-term bull trend. As of March, the stock is up about 2.85% for the month and 9.07% for the year, showing strong performance.
Kroger has a history of strong, sustained upward trends. Between July 2012 and December 2015, its price rose from $10 to $42—a gain of about 300%. While the stock has been choppier since 2015, its overall movement has remained upward. With the recent breakout from long-term consolidation, there’s potential for another significant upward trend, similar to what we saw from 2012 to 2015. Historically, breakouts from consolidation tend to result in large moves in the breakout direction.
This past week, the stock moved up about 4.11%, and we hope to see this momentum continue. On the daily chart, the price action has been choppy but is now above the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages. If the bullish trend holds, we could see a more defined upward trend develop. On Friday, Kroger closed up 4.57%, breaking and closing above its previous all-time high of $66 (set on February 25th). A new record high has been achieved, and we’ll be watching for the pattern of higher highs and higher lows to continue through the rest of the month.
Looking Ahead
The U.S. equity markets remain stable, but prices need to hold their current support levels and gain momentum to reach new highs. After a strong finish to Friday’s trading, there’s optimism for a rebound and a continuation of the bullish rally.
Our data-driven strategy continues to deliver solid results. Even during short-term market dips, our portfolio remains well-positioned by focusing on stocks with strong upward trends, demonstrating the reliability of our trend-following approach.
By maintaining a diversified portfolio of trending stocks, we let price movements guide our decisions. This approach keeps us flexible, ready to adapt to market changes, and well-prepared to seize new opportunities.
At Sublime, we are dedicated to detailed, objective analysis driven by chart-based data and evidence. This focus allows us to support our Phoenix community in identifying potential for sustained, profitable trades.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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