Welcome to our weekly newsletter, where we offer insights into stock setups that we share with our Phoenix members.
As we mentioned in last week’s newsletter, the strength we have seen building in the main indices in recent weeks has resulted in further ATHs in the S&P and Nasdaq in June. The overall strength across the indices is evidenced by the renewed strength this week in the Dow Jones index.
The overall trend in the main indices remains bullish, and the probability remains weighted towards the continuation of the long-term bull trends established in 2009.
As a reminder, ‘the trend is your friend until the bend at the end’, and there is no sign of a bend just yet. Those insisting on calling tops are getting swallowed into the bull trend, losing time and money in the process. For those holding long positions, the market continues to reward with simple profits, particularly those who understand how to scan, enter, hold and compound on those stocks outperforming the indices.
Understanding long-term price action, technical patterns, and market cycles are all key teaching points we offer our members. During periods of consolidation, savvy investors and traders will exercise patience, recognising that the markets never move in a straight line. We expect our patience will be rewarded, as it repeatedly has in the past, with new opportunities along with compounding existing positions.
Looking at the indices
- The S&P 500, the current trend is showing no signs of abating and this week another ATH was achieved at $4,323.
- The Nasdaq 100, also continued its recent strength with an ATH at $14,621.
- The Dow Jones 30, currently lagging behind the other indices, continued its renewed strength of recent weeks and moved beyond the 50sma.
- The FTSE 100, retreated again this week to the 50sma where it found support, to move back above the 20sma.
The natural movement to the stock market is seasonal, an important aspect many traders and investors fail to grasp whilst in search of quick riches. There is a time to expose your portfolio, and there is a time to apply patience. Knowing when to do both is an essential ingredient to success. Less is absolutely more.
We continue to hold high-performing stocks in our portfolio, which we will add to during the next round of breakouts. Good quality opportunities continue to present themselves, which allows us to diversify further. We continue to share setups and signals with our Phoenix members.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
Here are how the best-performing UK & US stocks, as picked out by our scanning process, have
performed this week.
For a glossary of terms click here.
OUTPERFORMING STOCKS COVERED THIS WEEK
UK Stocks
US Stocks
FTSE 100
As we have reached the end of the month we see that price in June has traded in a tight range between the pivot high from 2015 at 7124 and support at the; weekly 200sma, daily 50sma and 7000 round number.
The Sublime trend filter continues to remain green on the weekly timeframe, with price trading above both the 50sma and 200sma.
On the daily timeframe below, we can see that this week price weakened to once again test the 50sma, before moving higher. The Sublime trend filter is currently switching between grey and green, indicating price is in a period of indecision. Our bias overall remains bullish, and we continue to look for stocks outperforming the index.
UK STOCKS
Breedon Group – BREE
A stock with a mixed history is trading at a new ATH. Whilst April and May produced bullish moves, June’s performance resulted in an indecision candle. Performance in the first half of the year has been bullish with a 24% gain.
On the weekly timeframe, price is trading above the 50sma and 200sma and the Sublime trend filter is green. Following a break above the wPiv21 in April, this year price has retested this level which lies at £1.
On the daily timeframe below, price is trading above the 20sma, 50sma and 200sma. This week the Sublime trend filter was a mix of green and grey, indicating indecision. At this stage, given the current price action, we will be applying patience and waiting for price to dictate the next move. We will share any signals with our Phoenix members. This is a stock to watch but not one that is high on our watchlist, given its history of performance.
Croda International – CRDA
A stock we have been in since last year, this week price created an ATH at £74.46. Price in June continued the momentum with a 5.4% gain, whilst in the first half of the year, price has moved up 11.4%.
On the weekly timeframe, price is trading above the 50sma and 200sma and the Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily timeframe below, price is above the 20sma and 50sma and the Sublime trend filter is green. Since the breakout from consolidation, price retested the wPiv21 and £70 round number, which has acted as a strong area of support. We will now apply patience and see if price can recreate a linear trend. We will continue to share signals with our Phoenix members, particularly if we see such a trend develop towards the next round number at £100.
Ferguson – FERG
A stock that has moved higher over time, but in the past has suffered deep pullbacks. However, a gain of 13% in the first half of this year, including a strong 5% gain in June alone means this stock is one to watch.
On the weekly timeframe, price is trading above the 50sma and 200sma and the Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily timeframe below, price is above the 20sma, 50sma and 200sma, and the Sublime trend filter is green. All MAs are currently neatly aligned, indicating that a linear trend could be forming. This week price closed above £10, creating an ATH. We will now apply patience and see if price can continue beyond the recent round number and develop a linear trend. We will share any breakout or pullback signals with our Phoenix members.
If you have watched the 4-part series and are keen to get started, then book yourself in for a 1-2-1 call with a member of the Sublime Trading team. |
S&P 500
With the end of the month complete, June’s candle has confirmed further strength in the current trend. The month closed with a gain of 2.6% whilst the half-year performance returned an impressive gain of 13.9%. Price this week created an ATH at $4,323, demonstrating that the bullish trend remains intact.
On the weekly timeframe, price continues to trade above the 50sma and 200sma and the Sublime trend filter remains green.
On the daily timeframe below, price is above the 20sma, 50sma and 200sma and the Sublime trend filter remains green. Over the past week, price has confirmed the break out from the range that had been formed going back to May. With another week producing an ATH, the bulls remain in control of the S&P, and we continue to look for stocks that are outperforming the index.
US STOCKS
Agilent Technologies – MSFT
This stock has a mixed history. After initially floating in 1999, price shot up, but retreated just as quickly. Price then struggled to find any direction for several years. However, in 2016 price showed signs of strength and since then there have been periods of trends emerging. Following the pandemic, in July 2020 price broke out of a period of consolidation and has since moved 54% higher. June was one of its strongest months with a gain of 7% and an ATH at $149.
On the weekly timeframe, price is trading above the 50sma and the 200sma and the Sublime trend filter continues to be green, confirming the bull trend.
On the daily timeframe below, price is above the 20sma, 50sma and 200sma. The Sublime trend filter is green. Since breaking above the wPiv21 in May 2020, price has used the 50sma as support, except for one deeper pullback in March this year which declined further. This is a stock to watch but not one that is high on our watchlist, given its history of mixed performance.
Charles River Laboratories - CRL
A stock that continues to go from strength to strength. Since breaking above a previous ATH in May 2020, price has increased by an impressive 106%. June’s performance has continued the bullish momentum with a 9.5% gain.
On the weekly timeframe, the Sublime trend filter continues to be green, confirming the bull trend. Price is trading above the 50sma and the 200sma.
On the daily timeframe below, price is above the 20sma, 50sma and 200sma, and the Sublime trend filter is green. Since breaking above the wPiv21 level in May 2020 price has used the 50sma as support, in turn creating higher highs and higher lows. The next level of resistance is the $400 round number. Whilst an expensive stock, and recognising price has been in a sustained trend for several months, we will monitor it and update our Phoenix community if any opportunities arise.
eBay - EBAY
A stock with a mixed history, combining periods of trends punctured by deep pullbacks. June’s candle was particularly bullish with a 15.3% gain and an ATH at $71. Performance in the half-year to 30 June has been equally impressive with a 40% gain.
On the weekly timeframe, price is trading above the 50sma and 200sma and the Sublime trend filter is green. Between February and May this year, price made several attempts to break clear above the wPiv21. This was finally achieved in June and since then the bulls have tried to take price higher.
On the daily timeframe below, price is trading above the 20sma, 50sma and 200sma and the Sublime trend filter is green. This chart tells the story of this stock; despite price slowly moving higher, it has lacked any real clear direction or momentum. As price has now broken out of consolidation and created an ATH, we will apply patience and watch this stock for any signs of a linear trend emerging – which may occur after the next round number at $100. We will update our Phoenix members on any pullback or breakout opportunities that may develop.
Johnson Controls International - JCI
A stock that has historically been in long periods of consolidation, since the end of the pandemic price has been in a very bullish trend. June’s candle displayed indecision with a modest 3% gain, which is not unexpected following five months of bullish momentum. On a half-year basis price increased by an excellent 44%.
On the weekly timeframe, the Sublime trend filter is green, and price is trading above the 50sma and 200sma. Following a break above the wPiv21 level in November 2020 price initially struggled to find momentum, but recently strength has built into a healthy trend.
On the daily timeframe below, price is trading above the 20sma, 50sma and 200sma. The Sublime trend filter is green and all MAs are neatly aligned. Since breaking above the wPiv21 level, price has been using the zonal area between the 20sma and 50sma as support, in turn creating higher highs and higher lows. The next area of resistance is the $100 round number. We will share any breakout and pullback signals with our Phoenix members as the trend develops further.
Microsoft – MSFT
Following an indecisive month in May, June’s candle has now closed and produced a strong result with an 8.5% gain. On a half-year basis price increased by an impressive 22%. This performance has again this week resulted in an ATH of $272.
On the weekly timeframe, price is trading above the 50sma and the 200sma and the Sublime trend filter continues to be green, confirming the bull trend.
On the daily timeframe below, the Sublime trend filter is green, and price is above the 20sma, 50sma and 200sma. Following on from last week’s observations, the MAs are now all aligned and we expect to see strength continue. The next area of resistance is the $300 round number. In the past, we have generated excellent profits from this stock, and we will continue to share breakout and pullback signals with our Phoenix members as the trend further develops.
Nike - NKE
A well-known stock that has been in a long term trend since 2009. Price rebounded strongly following the covid pandemic. Phoenix members took a position in September 2020, however, price subsequently went into a period of consolidation. June’s candle displayed a bullish move with a 13% gain and a breakout from six months of consolidation.
On the weekly timeframe, price is trading above the 50sma and the 200sma and this week the Sublime trend filter changed from grey to green, confirming the breakout.
On the daily timeframe below, the initial trend followed by the period of consolidation and then the recent breakout are all evident. Price is currently above the 20sma, 50sma and 200sma. The 20sma has this week crossed above the 50sma. The Sublime trend filter has turned green with the breakout. If the breakout can be sustained with a continuation pattern then we should see price move towards the next round number at $200. We will continue to update Phoenix members of any further positions in the stock.
Zoetis - ZTS
A stock in a long term trend. Price in June showed bullishness with a gain of 5.5% and a close above the previous year high set at $177. In recent months there is evidence of the battle between the bulls and bears with indecision candles in February, March and May.
On the weekly timeframe, price is trading above the 50sma and the 200sma and this week the Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily timeframe below, since price broke above the wPiv21 level a bullish trend is emerging. Price is trading above the 20sma, 50sma and 200sma. The Sublime trend filter is green and the MAs are all aligned, indicating a linear trend. Price is currently faced with immediate resistance at the $200 round number. If price can close above this level and form a linear trend then opportunities may arise which we will share with our Phoenix community.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both created new ATHs this week. The Dow 30 is showing renewed strength and we expect it will follow in due course with a new ATH. Over the coming weeks, we expect to see further momentum build, resulting in more stocks breaking out and continuing their bullish trends. To get the latest updates and analysis, then join our FREE Launchpad Facebook group.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
