Welcome to our weekly newsletter, where we offer insights into stock setups that we share with our Phoenix members.
This week we have seen the markets pull back to areas of support, and we await their next move. Price never moves in a straight line: breakouts and pullbacks are all part of the markets ‘breathing’. As seasoned traders, we expect and embrace these cycles.
We have a clear trading plan that governs our approach. This is the value of our education programme, where we teach members the right techniques to manage in all market conditions.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
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Here are how the best-performing UK & US stocks, as picked out by our scanning process, have
performed this week.
For a glossary of terms click here.
OUTPERFORMING STOCKS COVERED THIS WEEK
UK Stocks
US Stocks
FTSE 100
On the monthly time frame, as we have discussed for several months, price has struggled to close above the pivot high from 2015 at 7124. In November price initially showed strength, but weakened, resulting in an indecision candle.
On the weekly time frame, the Sublime trend filter is grey, indicating short term weakness. Price is trading above the 50 and 200 simple moving averages (SMA). Price this week pulled back to the 7000 round number where, to date, it has found support.
On the daily time frame below, price has moved below the 20 and 50 SMA, and found support at the 200 SMA. The Sublime trend filter this week is a mix of grey and red. Our overall bias remains bullish, and we continue to look for stocks outperforming the Index.
UK STOCKS
Big Yellow Group - BYG
This stock has a history of trends. On the monthly time frame, price suffered a pullback in September, but strength regained in October and November with gains of 6% and 10% respectively.
On the weekly time frame, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily time frame below, this week price closed back above a key pivot level at £15.88. This resulted in a new all-time high at £16.62. Price is trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green. This is a stock to watch but not one that is high on our watchlist, given its history of performance. We will share any signals with our Phoenix members.
Croda International - CRDA
A stock we have been trading since last year. In September price retreated by 7%, however, October resulted in a reversal with a bullish engulfing candle. Price in November continued this momentum with a further gain of 7%.
On the weekly time frame, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily time frame below, price this week has been battling with the £100 round number. The Sublime trend filter is green, and price is trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA. We will continue to monitor this stock to assess whether a trend can form above the round number. We will share updates with our Phoenix community.
JD Sports Fashion - JD
JD is a stock we have previously discussed in this newsletter. Following the pandemic, price has been in an uptrend, however, price action has been mixed with a combination of impulsive moves along with pullbacks. In November price created an all-time high, however has since weakened.
On the weekly time frame, price is above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily time frame below, price has pulled back to trade between the 20 and 50 SMA. Importantly, price is trading above the 200 SMA. The Sublime trend filter is interchanging between grey and green, indicating decision. Following a gap up after recent earnings, price has retreated to the 50 SMA. This week price was adjusted for a 5-1 stock split. Phoenix members will be interested to see if a linear trend can form, as it did in 2015-17. The next area of resistance is the £3 round number.
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S&P 500
Following September’s seasonal decline, in October the bulls took back control with a gain of 7.0%. In November price initially showed strength, but subsequently weakened. December is initially showing weakness, but it’s too early to assess this any further.
On the weekly time frame, price continues to trade above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter remains green.
On the daily time frame below, this week price has pulled back to the zonal area at a key pivot level of 4550, which coincides with the 50 SMA. The Sublime trend filter is currently grey. We will monitor this position, and wait to see if this support level holds. Our overall view remains unchanged, that the bulls remain in firm control of the S&P and, as a result, we continue to look for stocks that are outperforming the index.
US STOCKS
Apple - AAPL
Apple is one of the most popular stocks in the NASDAQ. It has a history of impulsive trends but does suffer periods of pullback and consolidation. On the monthly time frame, price was bullish following the pandemic where price moved from $60 to$130. However, since then the trend has been less linear. In November price broke out to create an all-time high, however, price subsequently pulled back to retest the previous year high at $139. Since then price has been bullish, with a gain in November of over 10%, along with an all-time high created this month at $170.
On the weekly time frame below, price is in a long-term uptrend with price trading above both the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily time frame below, price retreated during September to retest the previous year high at $139, then price climbed higher creating a series of higher highs and higher lows, culminating in an all-time high this week. The Sublime trend filter is green, and price is trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA. This stock has been discussed several times in the Phoenix community. A continuation pattern above the current all-time high could provide further opportunities before the $200 round number, the next area of resistance.
Brown & Brown - BRO
BRO is the stock that our Phoenix community has been trading since price broke above the $50 round number and previous year high in July this year. On the monthly time, price is currently displaying an indecision candle, which is not unexpected given the bullish moves in recent months.
On the weekly time frame, price is trading above both the 50 and 200 SMA, and a Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily time frame below, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA and recently has been using the zonal area between the 20 and 50 SMA as support. The Sublime trend filter is currently green. With a pattern of long-term trends, BRO is a stock that is high on our Phoenix community watchlist and we will continue to provide updates as new trends emerge. The next area of resistance is the $100 round number.
Etsy - ETSY
Etsy is in relatively new stock, having floated in 2015. Price took several years to establish a trend, which first occurred in 2018-2019, and again following the pandemic in 2020-2021. Following mixed price action in October, a bullish trend re-emerged, with gains in October and November of 20% and 10% respectively.
On the weekly time frame, price in November broke through a key pivot level as price made its way up to the $300 round number, before pulling back this week. The Sublime trend filter is green and price is currently trading above both the 50 and 200 SMA.
On the daily time frame below, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA but this week moved below the 20 SMA. The Sublime trend filter is green. As mentioned, this week price failed at the $300 round number, and price is likely to retest the key pivot level at $250. Our Phoenix community will be watching this stock closely to see if a pullback opportunity emerges.
Extra Space Storage - EXR
Extra Space Storage is a stock that we have traded in our Phoenix community throughout 2021. Price suffered a pullback during September, but has since regained strength, with a gain in October of 18%. November and December have both displayed indecision candles, which is to be expected as price is at the $200 round number.
On the weekly time frame, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily time frame below, as mentioned with other stocks, price suffered during the September pullbacks, however, the bulls have come in and price has regained strength. Price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green. This week price pulled back to retest the 20 SMA. Phoenix members will again be carefully monitoring this stock, to assess how price responds to the round number. A continuation pattern above the current level could offer another opportunity in this trending stock.
Nike - NKE
Nike is a stock that we have discussed several times in this newsletter and is currently in an interesting position. Price recovered strongly following the immediate impacts of the pandemic and was bullish throughout the remainder of 2020. During 2021 price action has been mixed with periods of consolidation combined with impulsive moves higher. In November price created an all-time high at $179.
On the weekly time frame, price is trading above both the 50 and 200 SMA, and a Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily time frame below, price is trading between the 20 and 50 SMA. The Sublime trend filter is currently green. Since 5 November price has made two attempts to clear the key pivot level at $175. Phoenix members will be watching this stock closely, to assess whether a breakout and trend can form above this important level. The next area of resistance is the $200 round number.
Synaptics - SYNA
This is a very interesting stock that doesn’t have a long history of trends. The stock floated back in 2002 and lacked clear direction for many years. Following the covid pandemic, a break out above the $100 round number and previous year high, price has been in a bullish, impulsive trend resulting in a gain of 200%. Price was particularly bullish in November with a gain of 45%.
On the weekly time frame, the Sublime trend filter is green, and price is trading above both the 50 and 200 SMA.
On the daily time frame below, price has been in an impulsive trend since breaking out on 29 October. This week price reached an all-time high at $298. Price is trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green. We will continue to monitor this stock, and update our Phoenix community should price move above the $300 round number.
Xilinx – XLNX
This is a stock that has a history of impulsive trends but mixed with sharp pullbacks. Since price broke above the previous year high of $154 in October this year, it has gained 42% and this week created an all-time high at $240.
On the weekly time frame, price is trading above both the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green.
On the daily time frame below, price has been in a strong trend since October’s break out. Price is trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green. Price is currently retreating to the 20 SMA, which is to be expected given the recent bullish move. A bounce off the 20 SMA and continuation pattern above the current all-time high could offer the Phoenix community an opportunity in a stock with a history of impulsive trends.
This week the markets have pulled back to areas of support, which is to be expected. We will continue to monitor our positions, and act according to our trading plan.
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Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
