Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500: Recovers From Recent Decline?
The S&P 500 is showing bearish candle for March, currently down 5.34%. The monthly candle has a long wick below it, suggesting the price has found support and is starting to move back up. So far this year, the index has struggled to break and stay above the 2024 high of $6,100. While it briefly broke that level in January and February, it failed to close above it. If the current correction has found support, we need to see momentum push the price above the 2024 high. From there, the next goal would be breaking and closing above the all-time high of $6,147, set last month.
On the weekly chart, the price is sitting below the 50-day simple moving average but above the 200-day SMA. The weekly candle closed as a reversal candle right near the 50-day SMA, suggesting a potential bounce off support. For confirmation, we’ll need to see the price continue rising and eventually break above the all-time high. This past week, the S\&P 500 closed down by 2.28%. At its lowest point, it was down 4.56%, but a bullish recovery near the end of the week helped it regain some ground.
On the daily chart, the price is below the 20, 50, and 200-day SMAs. On Thursday, it hit a low of $5,505, but Friday saw a bounce, with the week ending 2.42% higher from that low. Friday’s session alone closed up 0.76%. The price is currently holding around $5,500, and we’ll need to see it climb back above the 200-day SMA to signal strength. The index has been in consolidation for 65 trading days. To confirm a continuation of the bull trend, the price must break and close above the February 19th high of $6,147.
Dow Jones
The Dow Jones is bearish for March, currently down by 5.36%. The all-time high for 2024 stands at $45,073. If the price finds support this month, we’re looking for it to move back up, regain the momentum seen at the end of the week, and potentially hit new record highs.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq is down 5.62% for March, currently sitting near $19,000 but still below the key $20,000 level. If the price finds support, we’ll need to see momentum push it above $20,000 and continue rising past the 2024 high, which is acting as resistance at $22,146. In February, the price briefly broke above this level, reaching $22,203, but only by a small margin. For the Nasdaq to hit new record highs, it will need to break past both the 2024 high and February’s peak.
FTSE 100: Bullish but Slowing Momentum?
The FTSE 100 in March is showing a bearish candlestick pattern, with prices dropping to a low of 8477, which was the high from 2024. Price found support at that level and has since bounced back. So far in March, the FTSE is down just over 2%, but for the year, it’s up 5.63%.
On the weekly time frame, the price remains above both the 50 and 200 simple moving averages. It was a volatile week, with the price dropping to support before rebounding higher. The week ended down by just 0.5%, despite being down as much as 2.33% at its lowest point. The late-week bounce helped the FTSE recover, and the focus now is on maintaining bullish momentum to aim for new record highs.
On the daily time frame, the price is below the 20 simple moving average but above the 50 and 200 moving averages. Friday saw a strong move of over 1%, pushing the price back above the 50 simple moving average. With the FTSE finding support and showing signs of strength, the next target is to regain momentum, move above the 20 simple moving average, and eventually break the all-time high of 8910 set on March 3rd. A break and close above that level would confirm the continuation of the bull trend.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
AON (AON)
On the monthly time frame, AON shows a long-term bullish trend, with the current price above the 2024 high of $395. In March, the price briefly dropped below this level but quickly found support and moved back above it. Currently, the stock is hovering around the $400 mark, a psychological support level. Moving forward, we want to see the price stay above $400 and continue its upward momentum.
On the weekly time frame, the price is above the 50 and 200 simple moving averages. In September 2024, it broke out of a long-term consolidation zone, which ranged between $246 (support) and $347 (resistance). After the breakout, the price climbed to a high of $395 before pulling back and finding support at $347 in mid-January 2024. From there, it rebounded, reaching a record high of $412 on March 3rd. The price has since pulled back again, finding support at $395. If it holds this level and moves higher, we could see the stock continue to set new record highs.
On the daily time frame, the price is supported around the $400 mark and the 20 simple moving average. If it bounces from this cluster of support, we expect further upside. A break above the March 3rd high of $412 could signal the continuation of a strong long-term uptrend.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)
The March candle is showing indecision, with the price currently up around 0.24% from last month. Despite a sharp decline earlier in the month, the price recovered after pulling back to the 2024 high of $491, where it found support. It has since moved above the $500 level and is now slightly above last month’s closing price. So far this year, the stock has gained 13.6%, showing strong performance.
On the weekly chart, the price is above the 50 and 200 simple moving averages, and the overall trend is upward. However, it’s not a strong, steady climb. The stock tends to break out, move higher, then consolidate for a few months before breaking out again. Looking ahead, a cleaner upward trend with smaller pullbacks and more consistent breakouts would be ideal. Last week closed bullish, with the stock up by 3.87%.
On the daily chart, the price is above the 20, 50, and 200 simple moving averages. It bounced off the $491 level, which aligns with the 20-day simple moving average, and saw a solid move up on Friday, closing 2.07% higher. The stock is now close to its all-time high of $518 set on March 3rd. A break and close above that level would confirm further upward movement.
Looking Ahead
The U.S. equity markets are showing volatility, but it’s important for prices to hold current support levels and build momentum to reach new highs. After Friday’s strong finish, there’s hope for a rebound and a continuation of the bullish rally.
Our data-driven strategy is delivering consistent results. Even during short-term dips, our portfolio stays well-positioned by focusing on stocks with strong upward trends, proving the reliability of our trend-following approach.
By keeping a diversified portfolio of trending stocks, we let price movements guide our decisions. This keeps us adaptable, ready to respond to market changes, and prepared to take advantage of new opportunities.
At Sublime, we are dedicated to detailed, objective analysis driven by chart-based data and evidence. This focus allows us to support our Phoenix community in identifying potential for sustained, profitable trades.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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