Welcome to our weekly newsletter, where we offer insights into stock setups that we share with our Phoenix members.

Over the past fortnight we have seen the devastating impacts of war, with a humanitarian crisis unfolding. Whilst this newsletter and our business is about investing and education, we live in hope that peace will prevail, and quickly.

The perfect storm of war, inflation and economies recovering from the covid pandemic, is resulting in significant volatility in the financial markets. Our view is the best way to manage through periods such as these, is via knowledge. At Sublime Trading we ensure our trading and investing community gains the necessary education before using our proven strategies and tools in the markets.

Our trading principles are based on price and price action. We do not try to explain, nor predict, price movements. Price is always right; the most reliable indicator. We continue to stand aside during this period, whilst we await clear direction. As standing aside is a conscious action in itself, we continue our daily routine of monitoring the markets.

As we said last week, our position remains that the bull market, which commenced in 2008, remains intact. During this bull run, we have seen multiple instances of reversals, but price has repeatedly recovered. Whilst this instance is deeper than many, our position would only be reconsidered by a sustained reversal; measured by both time and depth, along with price in the main indices displaying patterns such as lower highs and lower lows.

At Sublime Trading, we have a clear trading plan that governs our approach. This is the value of our education programme, where we teach members the right techniques to manage in all market conditions.

Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!

PS To get FREE lifetime access to our bespoke analysis tools used in these images and a host of other free essential goodies, complete the ‘Are You On Track To Retire Wealthy’ scorecard!

Let’s get into this week’s newsletter.
Here are how the best-performing UK & US stocks, as picked out by our scanning process, have
performed this week.
For a glossary of terms click here.

OUTPERFORMING STOCKS COVERED THIS WEEK

UK Stocks

US Stocks

FTSE 100

On the monthly time frame, the strength displayed in December initially continued into 2022, however, weakened this month. March has made a volatile start with a 4.8% decline in the first part of the month; a large wick is forming below price which we will monitor.

On the weekly time frame, the Sublime trend filter remains grey. Price is trading below the 50 and just above the 200 SMA.

On the daily time frame below, since price failed at a key pivot level on 10 February this year, price has displayed weakness. Price is currently trading below all moving averages; 20, 50 and 200 SMA. This week the 20 SMA crossed below the 50 SMA, however, both remain above the 200 SMA, creating a mixed picture. The Sublime trend filter remains red. Our overall bias remains bullish, however, we are standing aside until market direction becomes clearer.

UK STOCKS

3I Infrastructure – 3IN

A stock that originally floated March 2007, price lacked any clear direction until October 2014; price then formed a strong trend until the pandemic in March 2020. On the monthly time frame, in recent months price action has been mixed, and in March price has been very volatile, with a 1.6% gain to date, but more importantly large wicks both above and below price.

On the weekly time frame, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is grey. Over the past three weeks, price has displayed very volatile candles.

On the daily time frame below, this week the Sublime trend filter initially switched from grey to red, but the bulls returned, resulting in a switchback from red to grey. Price is currently trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA. The significant pivot level at £3.20 has to date acted as support. We will monitor this stock to assess whether this level holds as support, and update our Phoenix members accordingly.

Safestore Holdings - SAFE

A stock with a long-term trend dating back to January 2014. In 2021 price broke above a key pivot level at £8.87 and created an all-time high at £14.60 on 4 January this year. However, since then price has been weak, resulting in a decline of 16%.

On the weekly time frame, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA. The Sublime trend filter is grey as this week’s price tagged the 50 SMA.

On the daily time frame below, the Sublime trend is red. Price is trading below the 20 and 50 SMA, but above the 200 SMA; the latter acting as support this week. We will continue to monitor this stock and share updates with our Phoenix community, should strength return.

 

St James’s Place – STJ

In early 2021 we highlighted this stock as one to watch, and it subsequently rewarded our Phoenix community with a strong, bullish move. Until recently price has been in a range, however, February displayed weakness with a decline of 7.5% and March to date is also weak with a large bearish candle and a decline of 7.3%. As mentioned earlier, there are signs of stocks forming large wicks below price which could be an early sign of the bulls wrestling back control.

On the weekly time frame, price this week retreated to the 200 SMA which, to date, is acting as support. The Sublime trend filter is red.

On the daily time frame below, this week’s price continues to trade below all MAs: 20, 50 and 200 SMA. The Sublime trend filter is red. This week’s price has bounced off a key pivot level at £12; we will wait to assess whether this level acts as support. We will continue to monitor and update our Phoenix members on opportunities.

If you have watched the 4-part series and are keen to get started, then book yourself in for a 1-2-1 call with a member of the Sublime Trading team.

S&P 500

The year has started with weakness in the S&P 500; January declined by 5.8%. January is often a weak month for the S&P 500, particularly following strength into the end of the previous calendar year. The weakness continued into February resulting in a 2.8% decline, but with a large wick below price. March is also displaying weakness with a 2.3% decline to date.

On the weekly time frame, price continues to trade above the 200 SMA, but price has weakened to now be trading below the 50 SMA. This week the Sublime trend filter switched from grey to red.

On the daily time frame below, price made a new all-time high at 4820 on 4 January, before weakening. Price is now trading below the 20, 50 and 200 SMA. The Sublime trend filter is red. Since the all-time high price has made a series of lower highs and lower lows. As stated in our initial commentary, we will wait to fully assess the market. Our view is the long term bull trend from 2008 remains intact.

US STOCKS

AmerisourceBergen - ABC

This stock has an interesting mix of strong trends and long periods of consolidation. Price showed strength in a trend from January 2013 to May 2015. However, since then price action has been mixed, despite a recent all-time high. December was the first month in several years which displayed a bullish breakout bar, culminating in a 14.8% gain. That momentum continued in 2022 with gains in January and February of 2.5% and 4.7% respectively; March has gained 2.6% to date.

On the weekly time frame, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green.

On the daily time frame below, the Sublime trend filter is green, and price is trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA. Last week’s price created a new all-time high at $148. This stock is evidence that stocks are performing well, despite broad market weakness. We will monitor this stock and update our Phoenix community accordingly.

Berkshire Hathaway - BRK.B

A stock with a history of trends lasting 1-2 years. We have discussed this stock in recent weeks, along with December’s newsletter – where we noted a potential breakout month. This assessment was correct, and price has subsequently made light work of the $300 round number, to create a new all-time high this week at $329. Similar to ABC, this stock has, to date, bucked the trend of weakness in the main indices.

The Sublime trend filter is green on the weekly time frame, and price is trending above the 50 and 200 SMA. Following the breakout described above, price retreated to the $300 round number and major pivot level and subsequently regained strength.

The daily time frame below shows an impulsive move since price bounced off the 200 SMA in early December. Price is currently trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green. The longer the consolidation, the larger the breakout. With price breaking out from consolidation going back to May last year, we anticipate a strong trend to develop, but patience is required. We will update our Phoenix community on further opportunities in this trending stock.

ConocoPhilips - COP

A stock with a mixed history of trends and long periods of weakness. Price this week created a new all-time high of $100, confirming the breakout from January this year. March to date is displaying a gain of 5.1%, however, a long wick is currently present above price which we will monitor.

On the weekly time frame, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green.

On the daily time frame below, the Sublime trend filter is green. Price is trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA. This week price retreated but bounced off the 20 SMA. With price now reaching the significant $100 round number, we will monitor this stock to assess whether this level acts as resistance. A break and close above this level, followed by a continuation pattern could offer an opportunity, which we will share with our Phoenix community.

Chevron - CVX

A stock with a mixed history. This month price has continued its surge, with a gain of 19% to date. This follows gains of 12% and 10% in January and February respectively. This year price has gained in total 45%.

On the weekly time frame, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green. This week and last week’s candles are very large, reflecting the strength of the recent move.

On the daily time frame below, the Sublime trend filter is green, and price is trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA. As mentioned above, since the breakout on 4 January, price has been bullish. The moving averages are all aligned and angling up consistently, indicating momentum. This week price created a new all-time high at $175. Again, this stock is evidence that stocks are performing well, despite broad market weakness. We will monitor this stock and update our Phoenix community accordingly.

Hershey Company - HSY

Hershey is another stock with evidence of a trend forming in 2022. Whilst the historic performance is mixed, this stock has evidence of trends lasting for long periods, such as the trend that occurred between February 2011 to March 2014. Since December last year price has been bullish with a gain of 15% to date. Similar to COP, a long wick is currently present above price which we will monitor.

On the weekly time frame, price continues to trade above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter remains green.

On the daily time frame below, this week price moved back above the 20 and 50 SMA; price is also trading above the 200 SMA. The Sublime trend filter is green. Since price broke above a key pivot level at $183 on 8 December, price has made an impulsive move higher, resulting in an all-time high this week at $216. Price reached the $200 round number in January, and this week showed a clear breakout pattern higher. We will update our Phoenix members of any opportunities in this stock.

Kroger - KR

A stock with a mixed history, price was in a strong trend between 2013 and 2015. In March price has broken out with an impulsive move higher, gaining 22% to date, and creating an all-time high at $47.

On the weekly timeframe, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green.

On the daily timeframe below, the Sublime trend filter is also green, and price is above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA. This week the 20 SMA crossed above the 50 SMA, indicating near term strength. Whilst we have seen a breakout this month, at this stage we need to apply patience and let price dictate. A linear trend could offer Phoenix members an opportunity in a stock that has historically provided very good profits.

McKesson - MCK

A stock with an interesting mix of strong trends and periods of consolidation. Between November 2012 to June 2015 price was in a very strong trend, gaining 150%. More recently, since price broke above the monthly pivot at $179 in March last year, price has also shown strength, with a gain to date of 64%.

On the weekly time frame, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green.

On the daily time frame below, the Sublime trend filter is green. Price is currently using the 20 SMA as support, trading above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA. The next area of resistance is the $300 round number. A continuation pattern above the current level could offer Phoenix members an opportunity in a stock with a history of strong trends.

This week the markets have displayed continued weakness, with prices trading below the 200 SMAs. We are currently standing aside, waiting for prices to give evidence of a clear direction. As mentioned above, we anticipate the bull trend, which commenced in 2008, will continue. We will continue to monitor the markets, and act according to our trading plan.

To get up to speed on how to accurately analyse the markets, consider completing the ‘Are You On Track To Retire Wealthy’ scorecard and unlock your FREE gift – Lifetime access to the Launchpad Investor Starter Kit priced £297 (+ VAT). 

Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.

The ST Team


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