Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500: Awaiting a Confirmed Breakout
The S&P 500 had a volatile week, reaching new highs before ending slightly bearish. February’s monthly candle hints at a reversal after January’s breakout above the 2024 high of $6,100. Although the index hit a record high of $6,141 this month, prices have since dropped below the 2024 high, highlighting the importance of this resistance level.
On the weekly chart, the bullish trend remains intact, with prices above the 50 and 200 simple moving averages. Last week, the index dropped 1.67%, following a 1.47% gain the week prior. Despite hitting new highs earlier this week, selling pressure pushed prices lower by week’s end.
The daily chart shows mixed signals since December 6, 2024, with the trend filter alternating between green, gray, and red—indicating a consolidation phase. On Friday, the index fell 1.69% from the all-time high of $6,146, recorded on February 19. However, it found support near the 50 simple moving average, just above the key psychological level of $6,000, forming a strong support cluster.
The market has been in consolidation for about 50 trading days. If this continues past 55 days, traders should watch for a breakout above resistance, followed by a pullback and continuation higher. The next key support level is near the 200 simple moving average at $5,704. With the long-term bullish trend still in play, patience is essential as we wait for the S&P to break out and move higher—unless broader market conditions signal a reversal.
FTSE 100: Bullish but Slowing Momentum?
The FTSE 100 is showing some interesting market movements as we move through February 2025. The monthly chart indicates indecision, suggesting the upward momentum is slowing down. However, January ended with strong bullish sentiment, breaking above last year’s high of 8474, providing a solid base for potential growth.
On the weekly chart, the market remains bullish overall, with prices staying above the 50 and 200 simple moving averages. Although the index closed down 0.83% for the week, this pullback could offer opportunities for strategic entries.
The daily chart gives a closer look at market behavior. The trend filter is still green, signaling ongoing bullishness. The FTSE 100 hit a record high of 8820 on February 13th but has since dipped by 2%. Prices have now pulled back to the 20 simple moving average, where Friday’s session formed an indecision candle—possibly hinting at a bounce from this support.
Key levels to watch are the recent high of 8820 and the support at 8474, which aligns with the May 2024 high. This level has shown its importance before, supporting a strong bounce on January 27th. The Linear Trend Indicator (LTI) reading below 3 suggests a potential linear trend is developing, which supports the bullish outlook. If prices continue to weaken, the next major support remains at 8474.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Deere & Company (DE)
Deere & Company, better known as John Deere, is a global leader in agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery. Founded in 1837, the company has transformed farming with its innovative technology and is now leading the way in autonomous farming solutions.
The stock has shown strong bullish momentum over the years. Notable past performances include a 75% rise from $97 to $174 between November 2016 and February 2018 and an even larger 128% gain from $174 to $400 between July 2020 and May 2021.
Currently, the stock is continuing its upward trend after breaking above the 2024 high of $469 in January. It briefly exceeded the $500 level before pulling back. The monthly chart reflects consistent strength, although the stock tends to consolidate before making its next major move.
On the weekly chart, the bullish structure is intact, with green bars and prices above the 50 and 200 simple moving averages.
The daily chart shows strong support at the 20-day simple moving average near $478, which could act as a base and support if the stock weakens further. A break above the February 19th high of $514 would signal continued upward momentum. The LTI reading below 3 indicates a steady trend, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Visa (V)
Visa, the world’s largest payment processor, facilitates electronic funds transfers globally, handling over 65,000 transaction messages per second. The company processes billions of transactions annually across more than 200 countries.
In 2025, Visa has outperformed the broader market with a 10% gain so far. February has seen a 1.99% increase, building on January’s strong break above the 2024 high of $321. The monthly chart shows steady growth, with new highs being reached regularly.
On a weekly timeframe, the stock fell 1.41% last week after gaining 1.69% the week before. Despite this slight dip, the overall trend remains firmly bullish.
The stock hit a record high of $356 before pulling back to test support near the 20-day simple moving average and the key $350 level.
The daily chart indicates strong upward momentum, with the LTI below 3. Current support is around the 20 simple moving average at $346, and the next major resistance is at the $400 psychological level. Friday’s reversal candle near support hints at a potential bounce in the near term.
Looking Ahead
The U.S. equity markets remain strong but still need to fully break through and surpass the current all-time highs.
Our disciplined, data-driven strategy continues to deliver solid results. Even during short-term market dips, our portfolio remains well-positioned by focusing on trending stocks, demonstrating the reliability of our trend-following approach.
By maintaining a diversified portfolio of stocks with consistent upward trends, we use price movements to guide our decisions. This approach keeps us flexible, ready to adapt to market changes, and confident in seizing new opportunities.
At Sublime, we are dedicated to detailed, objective analysis driven by chart-based data and evidence. This focus allows us to support our Phoenix community in identifying potential for sustained, profitable trades.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
P.S. Answer 21 rapid-fire questions about your investing approach and then as if by magic, we will give you recommendations that are right for you and you’ll unlock your FREE Bonuses that will improve your investing results over the next 3 to 5 years.
