Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.

Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!

US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW

S&P 500: Awaiting a Confirmed Breakout

As February has now come to a close, let’s review how the market performed for the month. This will give us a clearer idea of where the market may be headed as we move into March.

February has been an interesting month for the US market. The S&P 500 closed with an indecision candle and failed to close above the 2024 high of $6,102. This mirrors what we saw in January—while the price broke above this level, it couldn’t hold and close above it.

This high, along with the $6,000 round number, is proving to be a strong area of resistance. However, looking at lower time frames, we might identify support levels where the price could bounce. This could give the market enough momentum to break through the all-time high.

It’s worth noting that February is typically one of the weakest months of the year, so this market softness isn’t surprising. Moving into March, we want to see the long-term bullish trend pick up again.

So far in 2025, the S&P 500 is up about 1.27%, and we’re looking for this positive trend to continue into the next month. On the weekly time frame, our proprietary trend filter shows green bars, with the price staying above both the 50 and 200 simple moving averages.

The overall trend remains bullish. However, last week was bearish, with the price dropping around 2.95% during the week, but closing down only 1.04% after a strong bullish recovery towards the end of the week. Now, the key question is whether the support level is strong enough to push the price higher and potentially break the all-time high of $6,147, set earlier this month.

On the daily time frame, Friday’s candle closed red. Prior to that, we saw a mix of green, grey, and red candles throughout January, which indicates a period of consolidation. When green, grey, and red candles appear together over time, it often signals that the price is moving sideways.

Despite this, the index is still forming higher highs and higher lows over the long term. On Thursday, we saw a bearish move of around 1.79%, but Friday brought a reversal, with the S&P 500 closing up 1.54%.

This strong upside reversal is exactly what we want to see after a pullback—it signals potential momentum returning to the upside. Next, we want to see the price move above the 50-day and 20-day simple moving averages, followed by breaking the all-time high set on February 19 at around $6,146. Clearing this level would confirm a continuation of the bull trend.

The S&P 500 has been consolidating for 55 trading days since December 6. If consolidation lasts this long, we need to see a breakout above the high, followed by a pullback, and then a second breakout to confirm upward momentum.

As for performance, the Dow Jones closed February down 1.53% but ended last week up 0.94%. The Nasdaq dropped 2.73% in February and closed the week down 3.34%.

While the indices remain in consolidation and show some volatility, the key is for prices to clear resistance levels and all-time highs. In the meantime, there are still opportunities in the stock market, especially by focusing on stocks that are outperforming the indices.

FTSE 100: Bullish but Slowing Momentum?

February closed on a bullish note for the FTSE, despite some weakness shown by the wick below February’s candle. Overall, the price ended the month up by about 1.65%.

With this strong finish, we’re looking for the price to continue climbing. The next key resistance level is the 9000 mark. If the price reaches and breaks through this level, we could see further upward movement.

So far in 2025, the FTSE is performing well, now up by around 7.76%.

On the weekly chart, the bars are green, and the price is trading above the 50 and 200 simple moving averages. It’s comfortably above the previous consolidation zone.

Since breaking above this level in mid-January, the FTSE has continued to move higher, closing last week up by 1.71%. It’s now close to the all-time high of 8818, set in early February. As we move into March, there’s a chance the price could break above this level.

On the daily chart, the FTSE 100 hit a low of around 8617 on February 24 before recovering above the 20-day simple moving average and regaining bullish momentum. To confirm the continuation of this uptrend, the price needs to break and close above the February 13 all-time high of 8820. At the moment, our proprietary trend strength indicator, the LTI, is below 3, indicating that a linear trend is still ongoing.

PERFORMANCE REVIEW

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

On the monthly time frame, the long-term trend for this stock is bullish. February saw a significant move, with the stock closing up around 9.9%. This pushed the price above the 2024 high of $491 and the key $500 psychological level.

On the lower time frame, we’re looking for a continuation of the higher highs and higher lows pattern. Berkshire Hathaway is up 13.25% so far in 2025.

On the weekly time frame, the stock is showing strong performance. The price is above the 50 and 200 simple moving averages, and the weekly bars are green. Despite the indices pulling back and failing to clear their autumn highs, Berkshire Hathaway closed up 6.93% this past week, reflecting strong momentum in the market.

On the daily time frame, the bars are green, and the price is above the 20, 50, and 200 simple moving averages. Before the strong move this past week, the stock was consolidating from September 4, 2024, until the breakout on February 24, 2025—a consolidation period lasting 117 trading days.

The stock has broken out and moved upward. We’re currently waiting for a pullback, which could bring the price down to the $500 round number or other previous resistance level, which has now turned into support.

The other potential support level is around $491, while the next is $484. To confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, we need to see the price pull back to one of these levels, followed by a break and close above a previous high.

Earnings were reported on February 21, likely released on the following trading day, which triggered the breakout above the consolidation zone on February 24. This earnings announcement had a positive impact on the price, helping it reach new record highs. Currently, the LTI indicator is below 3 indicating a strong trend is in play.

OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST

Visa (V)

The final stock for today is Visa. This stock is in a long-term uptrend, and recent price action has been strong. In February, Visa’s price rose by just over 6%, bringing its year-to-date gain to 14.75%. In January, the stock broke past its 2024 high of $321, and the upward momentum continued into February. Visa is performing very well, and the next resistance level to watch is the $400 mark.

On the weekly chart, price remains above both the 50 and 200 simple moving averages, and the weekly bars are green. This past week, the stock gained 4%, finishing the week on a strong bullish note. As we move into March, we’ll be looking for this positive momentum to continue.

Looking at the daily time frame, the bars are green, and prices are above the 20, 50, and 200 simple moving averages, indicating a strong upward trend. This trend is confirmed by the LTI indicator, which is below 3, signaling a linear trend.

Recently, we saw a pullback. Starting on February 19th, prices declined and dropped toward the 20 simple moving average at around $347. However, the price found support at this level, bounced back, and continued climbing, reaching new record highs.

Heading into March, it’s important for the stock to stay above the 20 simple moving average and for the LTI to remain below 3 to confirm the trend is still strong as it moves toward the $400 mark.

On Friday, the S&P closed strong, and Visa followed suit with a gain of 1.89%. Looking ahead to next week, the price is likely to continue moving upward but may experience a pullback, which is expected. As long as the stock forms higher highs and higher lows, this trend could continue for several months and potentially longer than a year.

Looking Ahead

The U.S. equity markets are stable, but prices need to hold their current support level and gain momentum to break all-time highs.

Our data-driven strategy continues to deliver strong results. Even during short-term market dips, our portfolio stays well-positioned by focusing on trending stocks, proving the reliability of our trend-following approach.

By keeping a diversified portfolio of stocks with steady upward trends, we let price movements guide our decisions. This strategy keeps us flexible, ready to adapt to market shifts, and prepared to take advantage of new opportunities. 

At Sublime, we are dedicated to detailed, objective analysis driven by chart-based data and evidence. This focus allows us to support our Phoenix community in identifying potential for sustained, profitable trades.

Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.

The ST Team

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