Welcome back to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
The market ended the week down, which is not what we want, but what we have identified is that a number of stocks are still pushing up strongly.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500
It’s been a tough few weeks for the S&P 500. After a great run, the market has pulled back, and this past week was a sharp reminder of how fast things can change. If you’ve been watching your portfolio, you’ve likely felt this shift.
The S&P 500 is down about 7% for the year, and most of that drop happened this month. Friday was particularly rough, with the market opening lower and staying there.
In times like this, it’s always helpful to zoom out and look at the bigger picture. The long-term trend is still pointing up, which is encouraging. However, in the short term, there’s definite pressure. The next major support level I’m watching is around the $6,000 mark, the psychological round number.
Currently, the price is just above a key support level of around $6,147. If the price reaches this point, we can expect buyers to enter the market, which would likely drive the price back up.
The S&P was stuck in a range for a while before breaking down on March 20th. It tried to recover but failed, and the selling continued. For now, there isn’t much support between where we are and that $6,147 level.
The main thing to watch is whether the market can turn things around quickly. Can it get back into that previous range and build momentum? Remember, the long-term trend is still our friend.
The big question is just how much of a correction we’ll see before the buyers feel confident enough to jump back in.
Dow Jones
Like its US counterparts, the Dow Jones has seen a sharp, sudden correction that’s likely taken many by surprise, interrupting a long-term bull trend.
As of today, the index has dropped 6.03% for the year. This is a considerable dip, especially since we were seeing new all-time highs not too long ago.
The Dow has pulled back to a key support level of around $45,073, which was the previous high in December 2024. After struggling to break above this level, it’s now acting as a floor for the market. The main question is whether this support will hold. What I ideally want to see next is a bounce.
For long-term investors, the ultimate goal is to see it return to the all-time high of $50,512 from February 2026. Getting there will require patience and a wider market recovery. For now, the most important thing to watch is whether that support level from December 2024 holds firm.
Nasdaq 100
If the S&P 500 is feeling the heat, the Nasdaq 100 is sitting closer to the fire. Tech-heavy and sentiment-driven, the Nasdaq has taken the brunt of the correction, and this past week was another difficult chapter.
Year to date, the Nasdaq is down 8.38%, and March is down 7.32%. Friday’s session was particularly rough, with the index closing down 1.93% on a gap-down candle that extended the week’s losses.
The key area to watch is the consolidation range that formed after October 29th, 2025. This was a wide band between the $23,854 support level and the $26,182 resistance level. The price traded within this range for months before breaking below support on Thursday. Friday’s continued downward movement confirmed that the breakout was real.
As we head into the new week, the main focus is on a market reversal. While the ultimate goal is to reach new all-time highs, the immediate priority is for the market to stabilize and halt its recent decline.
FTSE 100:
While US markets have struggled recently, the UK’s FTSE 100 has proven more resilient.
Year-to-date, the FTSE is actually up slightly, by 0.36%. It’s not a huge gain, but it’s positive, and that’s more than can be said for most major US indices right now. March was a bit rougher, with the index down 8.65%, but I’m seeing signs that we might be past the worst of it.
The broader upward trend is still holding. The price briefly dropped below the 2025 high of 9,954, but it has climbed back above that level. This tells me that 9,954 is now a strong support area.
When you combine that with the big psychological milestone of 10,000, you have a solid foundation where the price is currently sitting. My expectation is that we’ll see a bounce from here and a move back upwards.
Last week closed up 0.49%. This created a reversal candle, which is a significant signal for traders. It’s happening right at that support zone we identified, which makes the case for a recovery even stronger. We’ll need to see confirmation, of course, but the setup is definitely there. Friday was pretty quiet, closing down only 0.05%.
So, what should you be watching? Keep an eye on the 10,934 level, which was the high set back on February 27th. If the price can break and close above that, it would confirm the bull trend is back in action and open the door for more gains.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
While many stocks have been taking a hit, Exxon Mobil has been a bright spot, making a strong case for itself as one to watch.
So far this year, the stock has jumped an impressive 42.09%, with March alone contributing a 12.12% gain. It’s a great example of a stock showing real strength while the rest of the market seems to be pulling back.
I started paying close attention back in January 2026, when the price broke past its 2025 high of $121. After clearing that, it pushed through the next key level at $126 and has been on a steady climb ever since. It’s been a clean, consistent move, which tells me there’s real buying interest here, not just short-term speculation.
Just last week, it continued this trend with a solid 7.09% gain, finishing the week strong with another 3.36% jump on Friday.
Looking forward, the next big level I’m watching is the $200 mark. Big round numbers like this often act as psychological hurdles where the market might take a breather. How the stock behaves around that price will give us clues about what’s next.
If it pauses and then pushes through, that could signal the start of another move higher. For now, though, the trend is your friend, and it’s been rewarding for those who are in it.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
New York Times (NYT)
While the headlines are all about market turbulence, The New York Times Company has been quietly having a standout year. It’s a great example of how solid performers can sometimes fly under the radar.
Year to date, the stock is up over 19%, beating every major index by a wide margin. When I look at the chart, I see a steady upward trend that started back in November.
There was a moment in early February that really tested investors’ confidence. The price dropped sharply before bouncing back aggressively on the same day. This pattern often shakes out the less confident investors and clears the path for the next leg up. And that’s exactly what happened here.
Since that bounce, the stock has been making higher highs and higher lows, the textbook definition of a healthy uptrend. For anyone watching this stock, the lesson is a classic one, the trend is your friend. As long as the price continues to build on this structure, The New York Times looks like a stock that still has room to run.
Looking Ahead
The percentage of U.S. stocks trading above their 200-day moving average held steady at 42% this week. While key support levels are holding, suggesting a potential bounce, it’s wise to be prepared for movement in either direction.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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