Welcome back to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.

We’re halfway through March and the market is still showing signs of weakness. But will it turn back to the upside?

Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!

US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW

S&P 500

While the long-term trend still looks positive, we’re definitely in a correction phase, and this week’s performance is a good example of that. So far this year, the S&P is down 3.12%, with March alone showing a 3.59% loss.

I’ve learned that a key part of investing is watching how the market reacts to certain price levels. We’ve seen the S&P 500 test the $6,945 high twice now, in January and February 2026.

Both times, it couldn’t hold above that price. This tells me that sellers are still in control around that area, which has caused the market to pull back.

So, where might we find support? The first level I’m watching is around $6,600. The 200-day moving average is sitting right there, and the S&P has often used this level as a launchpad to resume its climb after a correction.

If that doesn’t hold, the next support level to watch is the November 2025 low at $6,521.

Essentially, the market’s next significant move will be decided in that $6,500–$6,600 zone. If we see a bounce from either of those levels and a push back above the previous highs, that would be the signal for me that the bulls are back in charge.

Dow Jones

The Dow is showing a similar pattern to the S&P 500, but with a slightly steeper drop. It’s down 3.13% for the year and has fallen 4.94% in March alone, which tells us the market is feeling some real short-term pressure.

The key level I’m watching is the 200-day moving average, which is currently around $46,466. Of the three major US indices, the Dow seems closest to reaching this point.

I actually see this as a potentially good sign. In past market corrections, I’ve often seen at least one of the major indices dip down to its 200-day moving average before the whole market stabilises and starts to climb again.

This time, the Dow looks like it might be the one to do it. If it hits that level and bounces back, it could be just what the rest of the market needs to regain confidence. Until we see that happen, we have to remain patient.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq has also felt the pinch from the wider market downturn. So far this year, it’s down 3.44%, and in March alone, it’s dropped by 2.32%.

The key level to keep an eye on is the 200-day moving average, which is sitting around $24,243 for the Nasdaq.

If we see the price break below that, the next support level I’d look for is the November 2025 low at $23,854.

Think of these two levels as a support zone. If the selling continues, this is where we’d expect buyers to step in. If that happens, it could spark a recovery that lifts the rest of the market along with it.

FTSE 100: 

While US markets are struggling, the FTSE 100 has been showing some quiet strength. It’s up 3.32% year-to-date, which is pretty good considering the tough last few weeks.

Now, March hasn’t been great, with the index pulling back from a strong February. Before this month, the FTSE was in a nice, steady uptrend.

What we’re seeing now feels like a natural pause, the kind of breather you expect after a good run.

The index even hit a new all-time high of 10,934 on February 27th. The big question for me is whether it can bounce back from this dip and push past that record high.

Looking at last week, the market closed down only slightly. I see this as an encouraging sign. It suggests the selling might be losing steam, and we could be setting up for a rebound.

We should watch for a recovery in March. Ideally, I want to see the price close the month strong. A solid break and close above that 10,934 all-time high would be the green light I’m looking for, confirming the bull trend is still in play.

PERFORMANCE REVIEW

Kroger (KR)

This week, Kroger’s performance has been a bright spot in what’s otherwise been a tough market. While most stocks have been down, Kroger has been climbing steadily.

So far this year, the stock is up 21%, with more than 10% of that gain happening in March alone. That’s impressive, especially when you consider that major indices fell by 3% to 5% during the same month.

For a long time, from April 2025 until recently, Kroger’s stock was stuck in a range. It would bounce between about $58 and $74, testing that upper limit several times but never quite breaking through.

That change finally happened this past week. The stock broke out of that range and hit new all-time highs.

Looking back, Kroger has a history of making strong, sustained runs. For example, between 2012 and 2015, the stock went up by over 300%. The current breakout reminds me of the setup that came before that big move.

Now that Kroger’s stock is in uncharted territory, we should look for a slight pullback to a new support level. If the stock breaks above its recent high after that, it would strongly signal a new upward trend.

OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST

NiSource (NI)

Let’s take a look at NiSource, which wraps up our analysis for this week. It’s another stock that’s been moving against the general market trend.

So far this year, it’s climbed 13.48%, which is a solid performance, especially given how tough it’s been for most stocks.

March has been fairly steady, and just this past week, the stock gained a respectable 2%, closing Friday up 1.5%.

What makes this recent move interesting is the bigger picture. Last month, NiSource pushed past its 2025 high of $44. When a stock breaks through a significant resistance level like that, it’s often a sign that the buyers are taking charge.

March has been a bit of a cool-down period. We saw the price dip to around $45 before bouncing back, and there’s still plenty of time left this month for things to develop.

Friday’s activity was particularly promising. The price even hit a new all-time high during the day, though it didn’t quite manage to close there. The key level to watch now is $47.

If the stock breaks and closes above that price, it would be a strong signal that the upward trend is likely to continue.

Looking ahead, the next hurdle to be aware of is the $50 mark. Big round numbers like that often attract sellers, so we might see some pressure as it gets closer.

Thinking long-term, it’s helpful to remember that this is a stock that saw a massive 760%+ run between 2009 and 2016. Seeing a setup like the one we have now gives me confidence that there could be more upside to come.

Looking Ahead

The number of U.S. stocks trading above their 200-day moving average fell from 52% to 46% this week. Although this points to some market weakness, we’re still optimistic that the overall bull trend will continue.

Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.

The ST Team

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