Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.

Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!

US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW

S&P 500

The S&P 500 has had a solid year, with gains of 14.4% year-to-date, although November has brought some turbulence. The index is currently down 1.63% for the month, marking a period of correction after reaching its all-time high of $6920 in October.

This pullback isn’t particularly alarming when viewed in the broader context. The index has found support at its 50-period moving average, and Friday’s session closed with a reversal candle. While the candle showed indecision, the fact that it formed right at this key support level suggests the market may be preparing to bounce.

What’s encouraging is that the overall structure remains intact. The S&P has maintained a clean, linear upward trend since June, and this current correction appears to be a healthy pullback rather than the start of a decline. Once the index breaks back above its October high of $6,920, it should resume its long-term bullish trajectory.

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones has delivered a steady 10.44% gain this year, though like the S&P, it’s experiencing a November pullback of 1.21%. The index is currently working through a correction after its strong October performance, but the long-term bullish trend remains firmly in place.

The Dow has pulled back to a support level and is positioning for its next move higher. If it can bounce from current levels and break out above recent highs, the next major target comes into view: the psychologically significant $ 50,000 round number. That milestone represents a major level of resistance that could act as a magnet for price once the index resumes its upward trajectory.

The current weakness is characteristic of healthy market behavior. Strong trends don’t move straight up, and this correction is giving the Dow an opportunity to consolidate its gains before the next leg higher.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is showing impressive strength with a 19.26% year-to-date gain, though November has been challenging with the index down 3.09%. The tech-heavy benchmark is currently finding support around the $25,000 round number, a psychologically important level that’s holding firm.

Like the other major indices, the Nasdaq is simply working through a correction phase. The overall bullish trend remains intact, and what we’re seeing now is price testing support before its next move. The index needs to bounce from these current levels and break above recent highs to confirm the continuation of its long-term upward trajectory.

The Nasdaq’s correction is slightly deeper than the other indices, but that’s typical given its higher volatility. Once support holds and the market regains its footing, the Nasdaq should lead the way higher as it has for much of the year.

FTSE 100: 

The FTSE 100 has delivered solid gains of 18.47% year-to-date, though November has seen a minor pullback of 0.36%. The index created an all-time high of 9787 on October 29th, just one point above the previous month’s high, but has struggled to push meaningfully beyond that level.

Currently, the FTSE is moving sideways in a mini consolidation pattern. Friday’s session closed down 0.55%, and the index has been testing support while building momentum for its next move. The pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, suggesting this consolidation is temporary.

The next major milestone is clear and compelling. It’s the psychologically significant 10,000 mark. Before the FTSE can make that push, it needs to break convincingly above October’s all-time high of 9787.

The current consolidation suggests the market is gathering strength for another attempt. Once it breaks through that resistance level, the path toward five figures should open up, representing a historic achievement for the UK’s benchmark index.

PERFORMANCE REVIEW

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon has notched an 11.4% gain year-to-date, though the journey hasn’t been particularly smooth. November’s performance has been essentially flat, with the stock barely up 0.08%, as it works through another phase of consolidation in its long-term upward trend.

The stock’s history tells the story of a company that trends well at times but also endures lengthy consolidation periods. From July 2021, when it hit $188, Amazon tumbled all the way to $81 by January 2023.

It attempted to break out of that range in June 2024 but didn’t successfully clear resistance until November 2024. Since then, the stock has been climbing but hasn’t quite found its rhythm.

This past week, Amazon found support at the $242 level and formed a reversal candle on Friday at that key support.

The stock appears ready to bounce and continue higher. The next significant test comes at $258, the high from November 3rd. If Amazon can break decisively above that level, it would confirm the continuation of its bullish trend and potentially signal the start of cleaner, more linear price action going forward.

OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST

Cardinal Health (CAH)

Cardinal Health is the standout performer, delivering an exceptional 72.21% gain year-to-date. The stock has particularly shone in recent months, surging 21% in October and adding another impressive 6.76% in November.

What makes this performance even more remarkable is that it’s happening while the broader market is pulling back.

When a stock performs this strongly during a market correction, it’s often a sign of significant underlying strength. Once the broader market regains its footing and resumes its upward trajectory, stocks like Cardinal Health that show relative strength during weak periods tend to accelerate even further.

The stock broke out on October 30th with a powerful 10% gap up, closing the day up 15%. Since then, it hasn’t looked back, continuing to push higher and creating new record highs. Friday’s session saw another strong gain of 2.87%, and the stock closed above the psychologically significant $200 round number.

Looking ahead, the stock had previously formed a high of $168 on July 1st and consolidated for 85 trading days before that explosive breakout. Now that it’s broken free, what investors want to see is a healthy correction followed by another move higher that takes out the previous high. That would confirm the bullish trend has staying power and isn’t just a short-term spike. Given the stock’s momentum and relative strength, Cardinal Health appears well-positioned to continue its impressive run.

Looking Ahead

53% of U.S. stocks are now trading above their 200-day moving average, a small dip from 55% last week. This suggests markets stayed stable during earnings season and are likely to continue the current bull trend.

Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.

The ST Team

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