Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500
The market has had a bearish week. The S&P is down by 6.27% for March and down just over 5% for the year so far. The index is still struggling to break above the 2024 high of $6,100. As the market is in a decline, we need to see if the price will hold at a lower time frame support level.
Overall, the long-term trend remains bullish, and this looks like a correction unless we see a continuation of downward momentum. If lower lows and lower highs form on the daily time frame, it could indicate further market weakness.
Last week’s candle closed bearish but closed above the low from two weeks ago, which is at $5,500. If the price breaks below this level, it could signal more weakness ahead.
After hitting a record high on February 19, the price declined by 10.49% to the March 13 low. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed with a bearish candle, down 1.9%.
Heading into next week, we’ll be looking for a sharp reversal and a move back above the daily 200 simple moving average. However, if the price continues to fall and breaks below the March 13 low, the next major support level to watch is $5,119, which was the low from August 2024. Below that, $5,000 is another key psychological support level.
Ideally, we want to see the price move higher, eventually breaking and closing above the February 19 all-time high of $6,147. If this happens, it would confirm further strength, with the market forming higher highs and higher lows, and potentially creating new record highs.
Dow Jones
The Dow Jones also saw bearish movement, with March ending down by 5.07%. So far this year, the index has declined by 2.22%.
The $40,000 level below the current price serves as a key psychological support. If the declines continue, we’ll want to see the price hold at that level, bounce, and start moving upward again.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq shows a bearish trend for March, with the index dropping 7.62% for the month and 8.2% for the year so far. It has fallen below the $20,000 mark, which previously acted as a psychological support level but is now a resistance level since the price is below it.
For the Nasdaq to move upward, it would first need to break above the $20,000 level and sustain momentum toward its all-time high. The next key resistance after the $20,000 mark would be the 2024 high at $22,133, followed closely by the all-time high of $22,222 from last month.
With multiple resistance levels clustered above, significant momentum would be required for the price to break through and achieve new record highs.
FTSE 100:
The monthly chart for the FTSE shows that March has been bearish so far. Price has dropped toward the 2024 high of 8477, where it found support earlier this month. Since then, it has bounced off that level and moved back upward.
Currently, the FTSE is down 1.79% for March, but it remains up 5.85% for the year—a solid start to 2024. The index tends to break out of consolidation, reverse direction, and consolidate again. Right now, it remains above last year’s high, keeping the overall trend bullish.
The FTSE hit a record high of 8908 on March 3rd and has been trading sideways between that level and support at 8473. We’re now watching for a break and close above the March 3rd high, which would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Brown & Brown (BRO)
On the monthly time frame, the long-term trend for this stock is bullish. While the broader market is showing bearish signals, Brown and Brown has been performing well. For March, the stock is up 3.86%, and for the year, it has gained 20.49%.
It is currently trading above the 2024 high of $114, a level it broke last month, continuing its bullish trend into this month. We are watching to see if this momentum carries into April.
The stock ended the week with a strong bullish candle. Recently, it broke out of a consolidation phase where it had been trading between $100 (support) and $114 (resistance) since November 2024. The breakout occurred on February 25th, pushing the price higher. After the breakout, there was a pullback, and the price tested the daily 20 simple moving average on March 12th before climbing again to hit new record highs.
As the long-term trend for Brown and Brown remains bullish, we are optimistic that this linear upward movement will continue.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Cencora (COR)
Cencora is showing strong performance, with a bullish move underway in March. The stock is currently up 8.68% for the month and 22.68% for the year—a solid performance overall. In January, it broke above its 2024 high of $253.
While February saw some fluctuation around that level, March has shown strong upward momentum, turning $253 into a support level and pushing the stock to record highs. The next resistance level to watch is the psychological $300 mark. If the price breaks above $300, we could expect the upward trend to continue.
This past week saw a strong bullish move, with the stock closing up by 3%. Recently, the price broke out of a long-term consolidation phase, where support was around $214 and the initial resistance was at $247.
We had been waiting for a breakout above $262, a key resistance level formed on February 5. On March 18, the price finally broke through $262 and has continued climbing since. Moving forward, we’ll be looking for a pattern of higher highs and higher lows to confirm sustained buyer control and further upward movement.
Looking Ahead
The U.S. equity markets are currently weak, but we’ll be watching for a potential rebound as the new trading week begins. Finding strong support levels will be crucial to spotting possible reversal points.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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