Welcome back to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
The market continues to decline through March, but it may be bottoming out. The key question now is whether support levels will hold, providing a foundation for the market to move higher.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500
The S&P 500 is giving us a lot to think about right now. Even though the long-term trend is still bullish, March has been a tough month, with the index dropping 5.41% so far. If you look at the year-to-date, it’s down 4.95%.
Earlier this year, the price tried to break through the 2025 high of $6,945. It even briefly touched $7,000, a big psychological number, but couldn’t keep rising
When a market fails to hold above a key level like that, it’s often a warning sign. And sure enough, we’ve seen a consistent sell-off throughout March.
Just this past week, the index closed down 1.90%, and on Friday, it fell 1.51%. The price has now dropped below its 200-day moving average, a key level that was providing support just a week ago.
The price is now approaching a key support area around $6,521, which was the low back in November 2025.
The current pullback has seen a decline of about 500 points, similar to the one from July to October 2023. This similarity suggests we could be approaching a turning point.
I’m now looking for the price to bounce off this support zone and start heading back up. If it can do that and eventually break its all-time high, it will confirm that the long-term bull trend is still in play.
If this support level fails to hold, then it will be time to step back and reassess the situation. But for now, my focus remains on the bigger, bullish picture.
Dow Jones
Right now, the Dow Jones 30 and the S&P 500 are moving in a similar way, which makes sense. When the broader market is weak, it often drags everything down with it. So far this year, the Dow is down 5.17%, with March alone showing a 6.94% drop.
Like the S&P 500, the Dow had a good start to the year. It pushed past its 2025 high, briefly hitting $50,000 in February 2026, but then sellers stepped in. That level was a tough barrier to break, and we’ve been seeing a correction since then.
Last week, the market closed down 2.11%, with Friday’s close down 0.96%.
A key support level to watch is the December 2024 high of $45,073. Old resistance levels often become new support levels once the price breaks through them.
Ideally, we would like to see the price bounce back from its current level, recover, and then clearly break above its all-time high.
If that happens, the upward trend continues. If not, it will be time to step back and re-evaluate. For now, the long-term trend remains intact, and the current support levels give us reason to be cautiously optimistic.
Nasdaq 100
Of the three major US indices, the Nasdaq 100 has had the toughest time this year, so it’s a one to watch closely. The index is down over 5% year-to-date, with most of that drop occurring in March.
What’s interesting here is that, unlike the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq never managed to break above its 2025 high. That price level, around $26,182, became a ceiling.
The index tried to push through, but couldn’t, and we started to see signs of weakness back in February. That trend has continued this month.
Last week, we saw another drop, with Friday being the biggest single-day decline of the three indices.
Price is sitting right on a key support level at $23,854, which is the high formed in November 2025. This is an important level to watch right now.
If this support holds, we can expect the price to bounce back. The goal would be a recovery that eventually pushes past that stubborn 2025 high. However, if this support level breaks, the outlook changes, and we’ll need to re-evaluate.
The first test is simple, we’re looking for a clear bounce off the $23,854 support level. If that happens, it’s a good sign. The most important question right now is whether that support will hold.
FTSE 100:
After a good start to the year, the FTSE 100 has hit a rough patch in March. It’s been a dramatic drop, and a good reminder of how fast the market can change direction.
The index was looking strong, even setting a new all-time high on February 27th, 2026, after breaking past the 2025 peak of 9,954. However, the momentum didn’t last, and the price has fallen sharply since then.
Last week alone, the FTSE dropped over 3%, and Friday’s session pushed the price right back down to that critical 9,954 level. When a previous resistance level is retested as support, it’s a critical moment for the market.
The big question now is whether this 9,954 level will hold.
If it does, we can see this as a healthy pullback. I’d expect the price to bounce from here and start making its way back up, eventually aiming to reclaim that recent all-time high.
If it doesn’t hold, we need to be prepared for more downside. The next major support area I’m watching is around 9,600. A drop to this level would be a deeper correction, but it wouldn’t necessarily break the overall positive trend we’ve been in.
Watch this 9,954 level very carefully as we head into next week. The market is at a crossroads, and the price action here will give us a strong clue about the next move.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Keysight Technologies (KEYS)
Keysight Technologies has been on a strong run in 2026, and it’s important to keep the recent dip in perspective. Even after a slight drop this month, the stock is still up an impressive 36.59% for the year, which is a great sign of its strength.
In March, the stock fell by 9.70%. That might sound like a lot, but when a stock has climbed so high, a pullback like this is often just part of the journey.
I’ve learned from my own experience that these corrections can be healthy and are not necessarily a reason to panic. The bigger picture still looks very positive.
Looking at the charts, the $300 level has been a hurdle. The stock approached it and then retreated, which is textbook behavior at a resistance point.
The uptrend that started in November 2025 is still in place. This recent dip has lowered the price to a support level of $266.
We now want to see the stock find its footing here and start climbing again. The first goal is to get past that $300 mark.
After that, a solid move above the all-time high of $317 would be the real confirmation that the bull run is back on.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Ross Stores (ROSS)
In a market that’s been challenging for many over the past few weeks, Ross Stores has been a refreshing outlier. While major indices and numerous stocks have seen significant downturns, Ross Stores has been steadily climbing.
Since the start of the year, the stock is up 17.24%. Even in March, a tough month for the market, it managed to add another 2.70%. This performance stands out against the broader market and shows the strength of its current trend.
This upward movement really began back in November 2025. It broke through a key resistance level at $163, which was its previous high from August 2024. Once it crossed that line, it kicked off the strong, sustained uptrend we’re seeing now.
Last week, it rose another 2.38%. It even posted a small gain on Friday, a positive sign while many other assets were down.
When I look at the daily chart, the trend looks healthy and organized. The pullbacks have been manageable, and it continues to form a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, a classic sign of a strong trend.
The immediate goal is to see it break and close above its all-time high of $216, set on March 4th, 2026. If it can push past that level, there’s a good chance for more gains.
The overall structure is solid, and the momentum is with the buyers.
Looking Ahead
Fewer U.S. stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, dropping from 46% to 42% this week. While this indicates some market weakness, we remain optimistic. The overall bull trend may continue as the market seeks support.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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