Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.

Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!

US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW

S&P 500: Awaiting a Confirmed Breakout

The S&P 500 continues its relentless bullish trend, a trajectory it has maintained since the post-2008 financial crisis low of $677 in March 2009. Over the years, despite consolidations and deep pullbacks, the index has demonstrated an impressive ability to recover and push to new highs.

February is shaping up to be another strong month, with the index currently trading above last year’s high of $6102, set in December 2024. However, January saw a fake breakout above this level before pulling back, making February’s performance critical. For sustained bullish momentum, we need to see price clear January’s high and establish a firm close above it.

On the weekly timeframe, the trend remains firmly bullish, with price consistently staying above both the 50 and 200 SMAs. The last significant interaction with the 50 SMA was back in October 2023, acting as a springboard for the current trend. Since then, the S&P 500 has continued forming higher highs and higher lows, a strong indicator of ongoing bullish strength.

However, consolidation has been a dominant theme since December 2, 2024, and while price has broken above the range, we still need a confirmed close above resistance to validate further upside.

On the daily timeframe, Friday’s candle closed as an indecision candle but remained above the key December 6 high of $6101. The index has been consolidating for 46 trading days, approaching the 55-day threshold where a breakout becomes more critical. If price fails to clear resistance within this period, we will need to see a pullback, confirmation at a support level, and a fresh breakout to validate a continuation of the trend.

The S&P 500 posted an impressive 23-24% gain in 2024 and is currently up just under 4% for 2025. If momentum mirrors last year’s performance, we are still in the early stages of a potential long-term bull run. This makes high-probability stock opportunities a key focus for capitalizing on any continued upside in 2025.

FTSE 100: Bullish but Slowing Momentum?

Midway through February, the FTSE 100 is displaying a reversal candle, with long wicks both above and below, indicating early-month weakness followed by a recovery. The index set a new all-time high of 8814 before pulling back, a movement best examined on lower timeframes.

The weekly chart remains bullish, with price trading above the 50 and 200 SMAs. However, the last two weekly candles have closed as reversal candles, signaling a slowdown in momentum. Three weeks ago, the FTSE made a strong bullish push, but recent smaller-bodied candles suggest either consolidation or the early signs of a potential reversal.

On the daily timeframe, the bullish trend is clearer. Price remains above the 20, 50, and 200 SMAs, following a clean breakout from long-term consolidation on January 17. The structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, suggesting that while momentum is slowing, the overall trend remains to the upside.

PERFORMANCE REVIEW

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is a software and data analytics company known for its deep ties with government contracts and enterprise AI solutions. Its stock is delivering a stellar performance in February, surging 40% since breaking above last year’s high of $84.

A significant chunk of this rally came from earnings, which resulted in a sharp gap up. The stock has surged 164% from its previous all-time high set in January 2021 at $45. On the weekly timeframe, price remains firmly above the 50 and 200 SMAs, confirming the long-term bullish trend.

The daily timeframe shows that PLTR is using the 20 and 50 SMAs as support. Following its earnings gap up, the stock briefly tested the $100 round number before using it as support, reinforcing the breakout. We have yet to see a clean pullback since clearing $100, and when that happens, a break and close above the previous high will be a strong confirmation of continued upside. Our proprietary LTI indicator remains below 3, suggesting a steady linear trend is in play.

OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST

T-Mobile US (TMUS)

T-Mobile US (TMUS), a major American wireless network operator, has been in a long-term bullish trend, continuing its strong upward trajectory in February. The stock is up 16% this month, breaking above last year’s high of $248 after a prolonged consolidation phase dating back to November 2024.

2024 saw an impressive 37% gain, and TMUS is already up 22% in 2025. The next major resistance level to watch is the psychological $300 mark.

On the weekly timeframe, the trend remains intact, with price above the 50 and 200 SMAs. The daily timeframe confirms the bullish momentum, with price trading above the 20, 50, and 200 SMAs. TMUS had a deep correction in late 2024, falling 15-16% from its November 27 high before finding support at $208. Since then, it has rebounded 30%.

Earnings on January 29 triggered a 6-7% gap up, followed by a brief dip before breaking above the $248 resistance. The current momentum suggests further upside, but a pullback to key support levels—such as $248 or the 20 SMA at $237—would provide stronger confirmation for trend continuation. The LTI indicator remains below 3, signaling a well-structured linear trend.

Looking Ahead

The U.S. equity markets remain strong, driving stocks higher in line with current trends.  

Our data-driven, disciplined strategy continues to deliver solid results. Even during short-term market pullbacks, our portfolio stays well-positioned by focusing on trending stocks, highlighting the reliability of our trend-following approach.  

With a diversified portfolio of stocks showing consistent upward trends, we stay focused on using price movements to guide our decisions. This keeps us flexible, ready to adapt to market changes, and confident in capturing new opportunities.

At Sublime, we are dedicated to detailed, objective analysis driven by chart-based data and evidence. This focus allows us to support our Phoenix community in identifying potential for sustained, profitable trades.

Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.

The ST Team

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