Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500
The S&P 500 is showing strength in July, reaching new record highs. So far in 2025, the index has risen by 6.24%, with a 0.81% increase in July alone. It continues to trend upward and could maintain this momentum as the month progresses.
The price remains above the 2024 high of $6,099. As long as it stays above this level and maintains a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on shorter time frames, the S&P 500 is likely to continue its upward trend.
Last week saw an indecisive candle, with the price opening and closing at $6,259, showing no significant movement for the week. However, we are seeing a breakout past the previous all-time high of $6,147, set on February 19, 2025. This breakout, which occurred on June 27th, has since driven the price 2.25% higher. Following this move, there has been a period of sideways consolidation.
The next key level to watch is the all-time high of $6,290, set on July 10th. A break and close above this level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend and confirm further upside movement in the long-term trend for the S&P 500.
Dow Jones
On the monthly timeframe, the Dow Jones has grown 4.25% this year, with a modest increase of 0.54% so far this month. There’s a potential reversal candle forming for July, but with the month still underway, this could change.
Unlike the S&P and Nasdaq, the Dow Jones hasn’t hit a new record high yet. Its all-time high of $45,073 was set in December 2024. If the Dow breaks this level, all major indices would be in bullish alignment.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq has grown 8.44% so far this year and is up 0.4% for the month. It’s currently above the 2024 high of $22,133, and as long as it stays above this support level, further growth is likely.
Overall, the Nasdaq is performing well. Like the S&P, it’s hitting new record highs, and now we’re just waiting for the Dow Jones to catch up.
FTSE 100:
The FTSE 100 has shown strong progress this week, breaking its all-time high. On the monthly chart, July has produced a bullish candle, setting a new record at 8984. The index is now approaching the 9000 level, which could act as resistance. If it breaks past 9000, the next target would be the 10,000 mark, though that remains a considerable distance away.
So far this year, the FTSE 100 has gained 9.47%, with a 2.1% increase this month. The index is clearly making strides, particularly with this new record high. Last week, it rose by 1.36%, with Thursday being notable for breaking the previous high of 8908, set on March 3, 2025. Thursday’s breakout came with a strong bullish candle, but Friday saw a slight pullback, with the index dropping 0.39%. This kind of pullback is typical after a breakout, as some selling occurs and prices temporarily pull back.
Looking ahead, we want to see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on shorter timeframes, along with a consistent upward trend. If the index declines next week, we’ll need to monitor its reaction to the support level. A break below this support and a return to the previous consolidation zone could lead to sideways movement for days, weeks, or even months.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
EMCOR Group (EME)
EMCOR Group has shown strong performance over time. From its low of $95 in June 2022, the stock climbed to a high of $531 in November 2024, a 457% increase.
Currently, the stock has hit a new record high, surpassing the previous all-time high of $545 from January 2025 and the 2024 high of $532. So far this year, the stock has risen by 21.85%, and it’s up 3.6% for the month. With its recent strong performance and new record highs, the stock appears poised for further growth in July.
Last week, the stock closed with a reversal candle but still ended up 1.16%. Prior to this breakout, the stock had been in a consolidation phase from November 1, 2024, lasting 156 trading days. There were a few false breakouts during this period—for example, in January, when the price briefly moved above the previous all-time high before falling back into consolidation.
Keep in mind, EMCOR has earnings coming up on July 24th, which could impact its momentum. Depending on the results, the stock might climb higher, decline, or remain steady with sideways movement.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia is in a strong long-term uptrend, consistently hitting new record highs. For the year, the stock is up 22.79%, with a 4.6% gain in July alone. Currently, it sits above the 2024 high of $152, which serves as the next major support level, slightly above the $150 round number, another key area of support.
The stock’s momentum remains strong, and if it continues, Nvidia could push further upwards to around $200, the next major resistance level. Last week, the stock climbed 3.97%, marking a solid performance.
On June 25th, the price broke and closed above the previous all-time high of $153. After this breakout, it saw a slight upward move, a pullback to the $153 support level, and then rebounded to move higher.
Recently, a few reversal candles have appeared, suggesting a possible slowdown in bullish momentum. Another pullback may occur, but as long as the price returns to support and then breaks and closes above the previous high, it will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.
Looking Ahead
Currently, 53% of U.S. stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, down slightly from 54% last week. This indicates a minor slowdown in momentum, but it could be temporary as the market remains generally bullish. Meanwhile, our Asset Position Log is performing well, with our portfolio up 150%.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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