Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500
We currently have a bullish candle for June, with the month’s performance up by 1.11%. For the year so far, the S&P is up slightly, showing a gain of 1.56%.
Looking back at April, we saw a significant decline when the price hit a low of $5,695. Since then, the S&P has recovered by 23.59%. However, the $6,000 level is proving to be a strong psychological resistance. While the price did break above $6,000, it has since pulled back below that level, signaling that it remains a key hurdle.
If the price can move above $6,000 again, the next levels to watch are $6,099—the high from 2024—and $6,147, the all-time high from February 2025. These resistance levels are close together, so if the price breaks through all three, we could see a strong upward move, indicating significant buying momentum and potentially triggering a long-term trend.
Currently, on the daily timeframe, the price has begun to pull back. A high of $6,059 was reached on June 11, but it has since declined below $6,000. Now, the price is nearing the 20-day simple moving average, which is sitting at $5,945. If this support level holds, we could see a bounce back upward, potentially clearing those key resistance levels and continuing the bullish trend.
Dow Jones
June has seen an indecision candle so far, with the month’s performance slightly down by 0.1%. For the year, the Dow Jones is also down, showing a decline of 0.82%.
With the current weakness, we’re looking for the price to bounce from support and move upward to resume the long-term trend. If momentum builds, the next goal is to break above the all-time high of $45,073, which was set in December 2024.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq’s June performance is looking strong, with the June candle up by 1.36%. For the year, the Nasdaq has gained 3.05%. However, it still needs to push higher to surpass its all-time high. Before reaching that, it first needs to break the 2024 high at $22,133, followed by the all-time high from February 2025 at $22,222. Breaking through this strong resistance zone could signal the start of a significant bullish uptrend.
FTSE 100:
June has been positive for the FTSE 100, continuing the momentum from last month’s bullish performance. So far, June is up by 0.95%, bringing the FTSE 100’s gain for the year to 8.35%. It’s now approaching its all-time high of 8908, set in March 2025. While price nearly reached this level, it has started to pull back, and we’re watching to see if it finds support. If it does, a bounce off the support level could lead to further upward movement.
Friday’s trading closed with a bearish candle, falling 0.4%. If the pullback continues into next week, the 20 simple moving average at 8785 could act as support. This level also held during the pullback on May 23rd, so we expect it to provide support again. If the price bounces from this level, it could lead to another push towards the all-time high.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft has been performing well overall, with a strong upward trend over the past several years. Recently, the stock made a significant move, gapping up by 9.05% from the close of April to the open of May 2025. May’s monthly candle closed bullish, and June’s candle is also showing bullish momentum, now surpassing major resistance at $468, which was the high for 2024.
With Microsoft reaching new record highs, we anticipate continued upward momentum. As of June, the stock is up 3.07% for the month and 12.4% for the year—a strong performance so far. The next key resistance level to watch is the $500 psychological mark.
Looking at the bigger picture, Microsoft recently broke out of a consolidation phase that lasted 231 trading days. Between July 2024 and the breakout, the stock was range-bound between $344 and $468. Now that it has moved out of this consolidation period, the next step is to confirm a bull trend with a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Amphenol (APH)
Amphenol is currently in a strong long-term uptrend, with a significant bullish momentum driving its price higher. In April 2025, the stock began a strong upward move, breaking above the 2024 high of $75. This trend continued with a large bullish candle in May. So far, June is also showing strength, with the stock up 2.86% for the month and 33.12% for the year—a clear indication of a strong trend.
With June’s bullish momentum, the stock is expected to continue its upward trajectory. The next resistance level is the $100 round number. After breaking the previous resistance level of $79 on May 2, 2025, Amphenol has been steadily climbing without any significant pullback to even touch the 20-day simple moving average. This signifies a strong impulsive trend.
If a pullback does occur, it may drop to the $90 level, a key psychological support. Should price reach this level, it’s likely to hold and push the stock further upward. If Amphenol breaks its all-time high of $94 (set on June 12), the next target is the $100 resistance. The $100 level might cause some consolidation, but if broken, the long-term trend could extend further, potentially reaching $150 or even $200.
Looking Ahead
Right now, 41% of U.S. stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, showing strong signs of market recovery. We’re adding more breakout stocks to our Asset Position Log for members to consider. If the S\&P 500 reaches a new all-time high, even more opportunities are likely to follow.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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