Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500
On the monthly time frame, the S&P 500 shows a bullish candle for May, pushing the price closer to the all-time high of $6,147. So far this year, the S&P 500 is up by 1.3%, after being down earlier. In April, it had dropped 17.75%, but May has brought a strong recovery, with the index up 6.87% for the month. This upward movement is approaching key resistance levels. The $6,000 psychological level, the 2024 high of $6,099, and the all-time high of $6,147. If the price breaks through these levels, it could signal a continuation of the long-term bullish trend.
On the weekly time frame, the market started strong with a gap up at the open, moving above the 50 simple moving average. The week opened 2.61% higher and closed with a 5.27% gain, reflecting solid upward momentum. This bullish movement is encouraging as we move through the rest of May.
On the daily time frame, the price has made a strong recovery since hitting a low of $4,835 in April. From that point, the S&P 500 has climbed 23%, demonstrating a strong and impulsive move over the past few weeks. Now, the focus is on whether the price continues its upward trend toward the all-time high.
Dow Jones
The Dow Jones rose by 4.86% in May and is up by about 0.21% for the year so far. If prices keep climbing through May, the yearly growth should continue to improve. The goal is to move closer to the all-time high of $45,073. If prices break above this level, we could see further upward momentum.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq is up 9.62% for May and has also risen 2.07% for the year, rebounding from the declines seen in April. This marks solid progress, especially after the significant drops in the market last month. The market is recovering well, and the focus now is on reaching the next level of resistance. The high for 2024 and the all-time high are around the same level, so the key goal is for the price to break past the all-time high of $22,222.
FTSE 100:
Last week was strong for the FTSE100, and the monthly chart for May shows a bullish candle. As mentioned before, the price bounced off support at the high of 2024 at 8474, and has since pushed upward.
Currently, the May candle is up by 2.25%, and the index has risen by 4.77% for the year so far. The FTSE 100 is showing strength, trading above its 2024 high, and making significant progress this year. This is especially notable after April’s 12% decline. From the April low of 7545, the FTSE 100 has recovered by 15%, showing a strong rebound from that correction. The next key level to watch is the all-time high of 8908, set in March, which we’re hoping to see broken in the coming weeks.
On the weekly chart, the index gained 1.57% this week, ending Friday with a further 0.57% increase. This marks a strong recovery and positions the FTSE closer to its all-time high.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Mastercard (MA)
On the monthly time frame, Mastercard’s stock is up 6.49% for the month and 10.68% for the year, showing solid progress. May saw a strong bullish candle, setting a new record high for the stock. Given its past performance, we expect the stock to continue trending upward.
On the weekly time frame, the stock has been using the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) as support since December 2022. During corrections, the price typically pulls back toward the 50 SMA before resuming its upward trend. The most recent interaction with the 50 SMA occurred in early April when the price dropped to $465, below the SMA at $500. It then rebounded above the 50 SMA and continued its long-term bullish trend.
On the daily time frame, the stock has been in consolidation since January 30. The resistance level of this range is $577, while the support level is $465. For the stock to move higher, we need to see a breakout with higher highs and higher lows. However, if the price breaks out and returns to the consolidation zone, we’ll need to wait for the next clear breakout.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Amphenol (APH)
On the monthly time frame, Amphenol has shown consistent long-term growth. In May, the stock surged by 12.78%, making a strong move for the month. At the start of May, it opened with a 2% gap up, setting a positive tone. The stock has continued to climb, hitting consistent all-time highs. For the year, it’s up 25%, significantly outperforming the broader indices, which have only seen small gains. The next key resistance level is the $100 mark, and the stock appears well-positioned to continue its upward trend.
On the daily time frame, the stock had been in a wide consolidation zone. Initially, resistance was around $70, with a few false breakouts before forming new resistance at $79 and support at $54. Early in May, the price broke above $79, signaling a stronger move. This week, the stock opened with a 3% gap up on Monday, followed by continued upward movement. On Friday, the price broke and closed above the previous high of $86, set on May 13.
To confirm a continued bull trend, we’ll need to see a pullback to support, followed by a break and close above the next high. Without this confirmation, there’s still a chance the stock could retreat back into the consolidation zone. Watching for this pullback and subsequent breakout will help confirm the trend.
Looking Ahead
Currently, 44% of U.S. stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, up from 36% last week—a clear sign of growth. The S\&P 500 has also shown strong recovery, climbing 23% since its April 7 low after the tariff-related slump, compared to 17% just a week ago. With the market gaining momentum, now is a great time to take advantage of this upward trend.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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