Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.

Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!

US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW

S&P 500

On the monthly chart, April shows a bearish candle in play, but there’s a long wick below it, indicating price recovery. A low was formed around the $4800 level this month, and since then, prices have recovered, climbing about 11%. We’re now watching for momentum from that bounce off the support level to continue pushing prices higher. Ideally, we want to see price rise above the key $6000 level, then surpass the 2024 high of $6096, and finally break the all-time high from February this year at $6147.

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is down 8.87%. However, if the index continues its upward momentum toward the all-time high, we could see positive gains for the year. While there’s still ground to cover, the S&P is showing recovery and moving upward overall. From its all-time high, the S&P 500 remains 12.73% lower. On the weekly chart, last week’s candle closed up 5.72% compared to the previous week, showing strong recovery after the sharp declines in March and April.

On the daily chart, the price is currently below the 20, 50, and 200 simple moving averages. For a sustained recovery, we need to see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with price moving above these moving averages and eventually breaking above the all-time high. To reach the all-time high, the price needs to climb another 14.69%. If it can do so, maintaining a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows will be key for continued growth.

Dow Jones

For the year, the Dow Jones has dropped by 5.48%. From its all-time high, it is down by 10.73%.

In April, the index hit a low, falling below the 2024 low of $37,130 to $36,655 before rebounding. Since then, it has recovered 9.66%, and with strong upward momentum, we anticipate this recovery to continue toward the all-time high.

Currently, the price is just above the $40,000 level, a key psychological support and resistance point. If this level holds as support, it could further strengthen the case for the price to rise back toward the all-time high.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq is down 11.10% for the year and has dropped 15.98% from its all-time high of $22,222, set back in February. However, like the S\&P and Dow Jones, it is showing signs of recovery in April. After hitting a low of $16,583, the Nasdaq has bounced back 12.75% and seems poised to keep climbing.

Along the way, it faces a few key levels. The $20,000 mark acts as a psychological support and resistance level. Above that is the 2024 high at $22,014, followed by the all-time high, which is just above the 2024 peak. If the Nasdaq can break through these obstacles, we may see it continue to reach new record highs.

FTSE 100: 

The FTSE 100 is down 7.25% for April. This month, it dropped below both the 2024 high of 8472 and a key support level at 8048, which was formed from the February 2023 high.

After hitting a low of 7545 in April, the FTSE has recovered, climbing about 5.4%. It’s now approaching the former support level at 8048, which has turned into resistance. If the price breaks through this resistance, it will need to climb back above the 2024 high of 8472. From there, the next hurdle will be breaking the all-time high of 8902, set in March. While the FTSE has a way to go before reaching these levels, it’s showing signs of recovery. The long wick on this month’s candle suggests buyers are pushing the price back up, signaling potential for further gains.

On the weekly chart, last week closed with a reversal candle. The price dipped below the 200-week simple moving average but found support and moved back above it. While the all-time high remains some distance away, if this recovery gains momentum, the FTSE could surpass these key levels and potentially set new record highs.

PERFORMANCE REVIEW

Brown & Brown (BRO)

This stock has been a strong performer overall. It broke above its 2024 high of $114 in February and continued climbing in March, forming a bullish candle. In April, it reached a record high of $125 but experienced a decline afterward. From that all-time high, the stock dropped 12.79%, but it has since recovered by 8.43% from its low of $109. Year-to-date, the stock is up 16.6%, a solid performance considering the volatility of the broader market. However, it remains 5.28% below its all-time high.

On the weekly timeframe, the stock closed up 3.15% last week, showing strong momentum heading into the new week. If this momentum continues, the price could move back toward the all-time high of $125. On the daily timeframe, Friday’s price closed 1.27% higher, ending the week on a positive note. The goal now is to see this momentum carry over into the new week and potentially establish a long-term upward trend.

Previously, the stock consolidated between late November and late February, trading between a support level at $100 and a resistance level at $114. On February 25th, it broke out of that range and moved upward, hitting the all-time high of $125 before pulling back. After the decline, the $114 level acted as strong support, creating a base for the stock to bounce back. Now, the price is moving up again, and if it breaks higher, the stock could resume its long-term bullish trend.

OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST

Cencora (COR)

Cencora is performing strongly, showing a clear long-term upward trend. The stock is trading comfortably above its 2024 high of $253, having broken out above this level in January. Since then, the price has continued to climb.

In March, the stock saw a solid 9.4% increase, and in April, it has risen another 2.24% since the end of March. Year-to-date, Cencora has gained 26.45%, which is impressive considering the overall market is undergoing a correction and trying to recover. When a stock performs well during a market downturn, it often outperforms when the market resumes its upward trend.

Cencora’s all-time high is $296, and the stock is currently down just 4.9% from that level—a relatively small correction compared to the broader market. It’s getting close to recovering fully, and if it can break above the all-time high and the key $300 level, it could signal further gains.

On the weekly chart, the stock closed last week up 2.14%, continuing its upward momentum. On the daily chart, after declining from the all-time high, the price found support at the 20-day simple moving average around $269 and has since bounced back. On Friday, the stock rose 1.84%, and we’re watching for this momentum to carry into next week. A breakout above $296 and $300 would be a strong signal that the long-term uptrend is likely to continue.

Looking Ahead

The market is beginning to stabilise after the disruption caused by tariff changes. Markets have faced volatility before, like during the Covid pandemic, and have always recovered. The key is to stay calm, watch market trends, and make informed decisions. This approach can help you take advantage of the abundance of opportunities that follows.

Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.

The ST Team

P.S. Answer 21 rapid-fire questions about your investing approach and then as if by magic, we will give you recommendations that are right for you and you’ll unlock your FREE Bonuses that will improve your investing results over the next 3 to 5 years.