Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500
On the monthly time frame, April’s candle shows a bearish body, with the price currently down by 6.5% for the month. During the peak of the tariff-related news, the price dropped as much as 30%. However, a recent recovery has pushed it upwards. In April, the price formed a low around the $4,831 support level and has since climbed 9.31% from that low. We’re looking for this momentum to continue, aiming for resistance levels ahead. The first target is the psychological resistance at $6,000, followed by $6,104, the high of 2024, and $6,138, the all-time high set in February.
So far this year, the S&P 500 is down 10%. Last week, the index closed 1.51% lower than the previous week. As we enter a new week, we hope to see the recovery continue and push toward the all-time high. On Wednesday, the price gapped down by about 2.3% and began moving sideways. Moving forward, we want to see the price find support and bounce back to the upside. For a confirmed bull trend continuation, the price needs to break through multiple levels, surpass the all-time high, pull back slightly, and then break above a previous high again.
Dow Jones
On the monthly timeframe, April is currently down by 6.93%. Year-to-date, the Dow Jones has dropped by 7.97%.
After hitting a low in April following the tariff announcement, the Dow Jones has since recovered by 6.64%, and we’re looking for further gains as April progresses.
One key level to watch is the $40,000 mark, a strong psychological barrier. If the price reaches this level, it could decline again. However, if it breaks through, the price may continue rising toward the all-time high, which sits just above $45,000.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq is down 5.18% for April and 12.95% for the year so far. Like other indices, it hit a low in April but has since bounced back, recovering 10.22%. This is a promising recovery, but we’ll need to see further growth. Ahead, there’s resistance at the key $20,000 level. If the price breaks through this, the next goal is to surpass the all-time high of just over $22,000, set in February.
FTSE 100:
The April candle for the FTSE 100 shows bearish activity, largely due to a sharp drop earlier in the month sparked by news about tariffs. During this move, the price hit a low of 7542. Since then, there has been a bounce from that support level, but April’s candle is still down 3.53% compared to the previous month. The price remains below the 2024 high of 8470, which is now acting as resistance. For the price to keep moving upward, it needs to break through that resistance level.
Despite the bearish activity, the FTSE 100 is up 1.26% for the year so far. If recovery from recent declines continues, we could see the FTSE break the high for 2024 and potentially surpass the all-time high of 8908 set in March.
Two weeks ago, the price fell below the weekly 200 simple moving average, which served as a support zone. However, it quickly bounced back above that level, using it as a springboard for further upward movement. Last week, the price closed up 3.79% from the previous week, showing strong momentum. If this pattern of higher highs and higher lows continues, the FTSE 100 is likely to maintain its overall upward trend.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Coca-Cola Company (KO)
The long-term trend for this stock is bullish. April’s price has increased by 1.86%, and Coca-Cola is up 17.33% for the year, performing well even as the broader market pulls back.
The stock’s previous all-time high was set in September 2024 at $73. After that, it dropped to around $60 in January this year. However, January’s price action formed a reversal candle, leading to a bounce back upward. In February, the price broke through a key resistance level at $67, which was originally formed in April 2022. Since then, the stock has continued to climb. This month, it experienced some volatility, briefly dropping to $66 before recovering to $72, just below the 2024 high of $73.95. A breakout above this level is needed to confirm further upward momentum.
If the price breaks above $73.95, we’d look for continued upward movement, ideally with a clean pullback and a strong close above a previous high. Historically, the stock has moved upward but with significant declines and long periods of consolidation. A more consistent, linear trend would be a positive development.
Over the past week, the stock rose by 2.22% and is nearing the all-time high of $73. However, the stock remains in a consolidation range between $60 (support) and $73 (resistance) that has persisted for 155 trading days since September 2024. On April 3, there was a false breakout above $73, but the price quickly returned to the consolidation range.
For the next breakout, a confirmed move above $73.95 with sustained upward momentum is key. This would ideally be followed by a pullback and a break above a previous high to confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Kroger Company (KR)
This stock has shown strong performance recently. It’s up 5.32% for the month so far and 16.52% for the year, indicating a solid upward trend.
After being stuck in a consolidation range between $41 and $62 from April 2022 to February 2025, the stock finally broke out. It also surpassed the 2024 high of $63.59 during this breakout.
In March and April, the stock continued climbing, forming a strong upward trend. Over the past week, it rose 4.4%, with a significant 3.33% jump on Thursday, the final trading day of the week.
Currently, the stock is nearing its all-time high of $71, set on April 4th. If it breaks above this level, it will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.
Looking Ahead
The bearish trends from earlier this month have slowed, and more stocks are starting to break out, signaling a potential long-term recovery. As the stock market stabilizes and begins to rise, commodities like gold are reaching record highs. We discuss these opportunities in our private community to help members take advantage of these market movements.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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