Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
The S&P 500 finished the week at 5996, narrowly missing the key 6000 level, although it briefly traded above this threshold during Friday’s session. Despite the recent volatility from the U.S. election, buyers returned to push equity prices higher.
Our strategy, with wide stop losses and a focus on long-term trends, helped us navigate the market fluctuations in October as anticipated.
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has delivered a strong 26% gain, maintaining its bullish trend despite some short-term volatility. The index is up 46% from its October 2023 low and an impressive 71% from its October 2022 low, highlighting the resilience of this upward movement.
While indices like the S&P 500 give an overall market view, they often overlook strong individual performers. Throughout 2024, stocks such as NVDA, FI, PWR, ORCL, MMC, PGR, WRB, BSX, WMT, GDDY, and RSG have consistently outperformed and were highlighted in this newsletter well ahead of their trends.
Other U.S. indices also performed well, with the Nasdaq 100 climbing 5.4% to reach an all-time high, while the Dow Jones gained 4.7%, continuing its upward momentum.
In the UK, the FTSE 100 faced continued weakness, ending the week down 1.3% at 8072.
Despite recent market uncertainty, our disciplined, trend-following strategy and reliance on price action proved effective, keeping us well-positioned to capitalise on opportunities in the current market landscape.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. – ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ticker: ODFL) is an American less than truckload shipping (LTL) company. It offers regional, inter-regional and national LTL services. In addition to its core LTL services, the company offers logistics services including ground and air expedited transportation, supply chain consulting, transportation management, truckload brokerage, container delivery and warehousing, as well as household moving services. It contracts with freight forwarding services worldwide.
ODFL has a notable record of sustained upward trends, tracing back to 2011. Its most recent significant trend spanned from 2019 to 2021, during which the price surged over 300%. Like many stocks, ODFL experienced a pullback in 2022, declining by 30%, which led to an extended period of consolidation. This month, however, bulls have reasserted control, with the stock showing renewed strength and gaining 15% to reach a new all-time high.
On the weekly timeframe, the stock is trading comfortably above both the 50 and 200 SMAs, and our proprietary tool, the Sublime Trend Filter, remains green, signalling continued bullish momentum. Last week was particularly strong, with a 13% increase, highlighting the stock’s resilience and potential for further gains.
Similarly, on the daily chart, ODFL is trading above all key moving averages, and the Sublime Trend Filter also indicates a bullish trend. Wednesday’s close above the previous all-time high and a key pivot level marked a potential breakout moment, though the price did ease slightly by week’s end.
Looking forward, the stock’s recent strength suggests the possibility of a breakout. Should a continuation pattern form above the current all-time high, ODFL could offer an attractive opportunity for our Phoenix community members, given its history of sustained trends.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Ametek Inc. – AME
AMETEK, Inc. (ticker: AME) is an American multinational conglomerate and global designer and manufacturer of electronic instruments and electromechanical devices with headquarters in the United States and over 220 sites worldwide. The company was founded in 1930. AMETEK has been ranked as high as 402 on the Fortune 500. The firm has also consistently been on the Fortune 1000 rankings list as well as the Fortune Global 2000.
AME has shown remarkable long-term growth since March 2004, with gains exceeding 2,500%. This trajectory includes multiple bullish phases, particularly between 2011-2013, 2017-2019, and 2020-2021.
Closing the week at $192, AME has shown strong upward movement recently, with October and November returns of 6.8% and 4.5%, respectively.
On the weekly time frame, AME remains above both the 50 and 200 SMAs, with our proprietary Sublime trend filter signalling green, highlighting continued positive sentiment. The alignment of moving averages adds further strength to this outlook.
On the daily chart, AME trades above the 20, 50, and 200 SMAs, and the Sublime trend filter continues to indicate green, underscoring sustained bullish momentum.
Looking forward, the $200 level presents the next potential resistance point. A continuation pattern above this all-time high could offer an opportunity for our Phoenix community members.
Looking Ahead
Last week, U.S. markets recorded one of the year’s strongest gains, with buyers stepping back in after the election to drive equities higher in line with prevailing trends.
Our disciplined, data-driven approach has once again proven effective, with our portfolio continuing to benefit from the strong momentum in trending stocks. This reinforces the strength of our strategy, which centres on capturing gains through clearly defined trends.
Currently, our portfolio holds a diversified range of stocks with robust upward trends. True to our core principle of letting price action guide our decisions, we’re well-prepared to adapt to market conditions and seize new opportunities as they arise.
At Sublime, we are dedicated to detailed, objective analysis driven by chart-based data and evidence. This focus allows us to support our Phoenix community in identifying potential for sustained, profitable trades.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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