
Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected stocks that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
The strength in equities continued this week with the S&P 500 closing at 4595, its highest closing level since January 2022. The index is now less than 5% below the all-time high of 4819. This week the S&P 500 recorded a gain of 0.8%, its fifth consecutive week of gains. Price has now gained 12% since the October pullback. November closed with an extremely bullish return of 8.9%, its strongest month since July 2022.
On the weekly time frame, price is trading above both the 50 and 200 SMAs (Simple Moving Average). Price is now challenging the pivot high from July 2023. Whilst on the daily time frame, price is also trading above the key moving averages, the 20, 50 and 200 SMAs, and the moving averages are all aligned and diverging – a key sign of bullish momentum. Price is now 31% above the October 2022 lows and, given price is above all key moving averages mentioned above, we are actively seeking new positions from our watchlist.
We continue to see individual stocks perform well. Our portfolio currently compromises 20 US stocks and 1 currency. We have compounded a number of these assets, in turn, delivering excellent profit for our Phoenix community members.
The FTSE 100, the UK’s premier index, gained 0.6%. Price remains range bound between 7200 and 7700. On the weekly time frame, price remains below the weekly 50 SMA, but remains above the weekly 200 SMA. Whilst on the daily time frame price is trading above the 20 and 50 SMA, but below the 200 SMA. Should strength return, the next major area of potential resistance is the pivot high from 17 April at 7936. The all-time high is 8047. We continue to monitor this index, waiting for confirmation of direction.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Microsoft Corporation - MSFT
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) needs little introduction. as the most prominent software seller dominating the PC market with its uber-popular Windows operating system and Office software packages. They also broke into gaming in 2001 with the Xbox. Microsoft ranked No. 14 in the 2022 Fortune 500 rankings of the largest United States corporations by total revenue; it was the world’s largest software maker by revenue as of 2022. It is considered one of the Big Five American information technology companies, alongside Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Meta.
Since July 2016, MSFT has maintained a robust long-term trend, solidifying its status as a noteworthy stock. Over this period, the price has surged by an impressive 535%. For trend followers, MSFT undeniably stands as the king of stocks, exemplifying its remarkable market returns.
Closing the week at $375, MSFT printed a new all-time high. Throughout 2022 price experienced an uncharacteristic decline, resulting in a bottom in November at $213. In 2023 price has been bullish, with a year to date gain of 57%.
On the weekly time frame, MSFT continues to trade above the 50 and 200 SMAs. Our proprietary tool, the Sublime trend filter, is green, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Between July and October price entered a period of consolidation, with a break out on 6th November.
Whilst on the daily time frame, the Sublime trend filter also remains green. MSFT is also trading above the 20, 50, and 200 SMAs. Furthermore, the moving averages are aligned and diverging, indicating near-term strength.
Looking ahead, the next notable level of potential resistance is the $400 round number. Should a continuation pattern emerge above the all-time high, MSFT could present an opportunity for our Phoenix community members, who have profited handsomely in this stock for a number of years.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Fiserv Inc. - FI
Fiserv Inc. is an American multinational company that provides financial technology services to clients across the financial services sector, including: banks, thrifts, credit unions, securities broker dealers, mortgage, insurance, leasing and finance companies, and retailers. In October 2015, Fiserv, Inc. was ranked third by revenue among technology providers to U.S. banks.
FI is a stock that has a history of linear trends. Since January 2020 the stock has been in a long period of consolidation. Since April price has been in consolidation between $111, last year’s high, and $128. FI concluded the week at $131, a new all-time high, and price could be poised to break out.
On the weekly time frame, FI remains above both the 50 and 200 SMA. Our proprietary tool, the Sublime trend filter, maintains a green signal. Since price retested the weekly 200 SMA in October, price has been bullish with a gain of 19%.
Meanwhile, on the daily time frame, the Sublime trend filter also remains green. Price is trading above the 20, 50, and 200 SMA, however the moving averages are not fully aligned.
Looking ahead, the next level of potential resistance is the $200 round number. A breakout above the current all-time high, with confirmation, could offer an opportunity for our Phoenix community in a stock with a long history of sustained trends.
Looking Ahead
Strength in the main indices continued again this week. The patience we applied during the pullback in September and October is proving to be the correct decision, as the long term trend has resumed in full. As long term inventors, patience is a key weapon in our arsenal. Our position is the bulls remain in control, resulting in opportunities for savvy investors, such as those in our Phoenix community.
At Sublime, our unwavering commitment lies in conducting thorough analysis based on objective data and factual evidence presented in the charts. By adopting this approach, we aim to provide valuable guidance to our esteemed Phoenix community, collectively exploring opportunities that hold the potential for long-term, profitable trades.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
P.S. Answer 21 rapid-fire questions about your investing approach and then as if by magic, we will give you recommendations that are right for you and you’ll unlock your FREE Bonuses that will improve your investing results over the next 3 to 5 years.