Welcome to the first edition of our weekly newsletter for 2023 where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, a specifically selected outperforming asset with deep analysis. Finally, an analysis of an asset in our portfolio, including a discussion on the returns the asset generates for our Phoenix members.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
Last week we discussed the bullish start to January with all US indices gaining at least 2%. This week, however, was a mixed bag. On the monthly time frame, the S&P 500 declined 0.7%. Price was rejected at the 4000 round number, which was to be expected – we see this as a pullback until confirmed otherwise. On the daily time frame, on Friday price bounced strongly off the 20 SMA, to close back above the 50 and 200 SMA. Our position remains unchanged; we continue to look for high-performing stock in high-performing sectors.
During the week the Nasdaq 100 had a modest gain of 0.7%, whilst the Dow Jones was the worst performer of the indices with a decline of 2.6%.
This week the FTSE 100, the UK index, declined by 0.9%, which is not unexpected given the recent bullishness. To date, January has gained 4.3%.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Marathon Petroleum Corporation - MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (ticker: MPC) is an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. The company was a wholly owned subsidiary of Marathon Oil until a corporate spin-off in 2011. In 2018, Marathon Petroleum became the largest petroleum refinery operator in the United States, with 16 refineries and over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity.
MPC is a stock with a history of strong trends such as 2016-2018, and more recently, following the covid pandemic, where price has since gained 485%. Throughout 2022 price was bullish with a gain of 82%. January has started bullish with a gain to date of 8.0%.
On the weekly time frame, price is in an uptrend. Price is trading above both the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green. Since price broke above the 50 SMA in November 2020, price has used the 50 SMA as support – an indicator that gives us confidence the long-term trend will continue.
Whilst on the daily time frame, price remains above all moving averages and the Sublime trend filter is also green. Price is very close to an all-time high at $128.
A continuation pattern above the current all-time high could offer our Phoenix community members an opportunity in a good-performing stock. The next area of resistance is the $200 round number.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
White Mountains Insurance Group - WTM
White Mountains Insurance Group is a diversified insurance and related financial services holding company based in Hamilton, Bermuda. Redomiciled from Delaware in 1999, the company conducts most of its business through its insurance subsidiaries and other affiliates.
WTM is a stock that has been in a long-term trend since the end of the great financial crisis in 2009, gaining over 1000%. Throughout 2022 price has been in an uptrend, gaining 39%. This momentum has continued into 2023, with a gain to date in January of 4.8%, resulting in an all-time high of $1482.
On the weekly time frame, price is trading above the 50 and 200 SMA, and the Sublime trend filter is green. Whilst on the daily time frame the Sublime trend filter is also green. Price is currently trading above all moving averages, which are all aligned.
Looking ahead, the next area of resistance is the $1500 round number. Price is forming a linear trend and could be headed for another extended trend, which could present opportunities for our Phoenix community members in a stock we have traded for excellent returns in the past.
Looking Ahead
Last week’s momentum stalled this week, as the markets displayed indecision. As price never moves in a straight line, our Phoenix community is prepared for all situations. Whilst we remain vigilant, there are early signs our patience throughout 2022 could be rewarded with another healthy bull run in equities. We continue to share ideas with our Phoenix community for excellent returns.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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