Welcome to our weekly newsletter where we provide an overview of the main US and UK indices, along with analyses of selected assets that are outperforming the market.
Let’s get into this week’s newsletter!
US & UK INDICES OVERVIEW
S&P 500
The S&P 500 is looking strong for October, delivering impressive yearly gains of 24.29% and keeping investors optimistic throughout 2025. This month alone added 1.69% to those returns, proving that the momentum from earlier in the year is still present.
The index is now just 1.61% below its all-time high of $6,148, reached on August 20th. This proximity to record levels highlights the market’s strength despite some recent volatility. Last week, the S&P gained a modest 0.14%, with Friday’s session adding another 0.10% to close the week on a positive note.
From a technical standpoint, the S&P is in a healthy correction within its broader uptrend. It has found support around the 6000 level, which previously acted as resistance back in September. This shift, where old resistance becomes new support, is a positive sign for a continued bull market. The next step is breaking back above the $6,148 high, which would confirm the continuation of the longer-term uptrend.
Dow Jones
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has performed steadily this year, up 18.55% since January. October was especially strong, with a 2.07% monthly gain, outperforming other indexes. Last week, it gained 0.82%, with Friday adding 0.64%.
Encouragingly, the Dow is now only 0.18% below its record high of $45,017, set on August 13th. This means it’s very close to new records. The index has been holding steady near these highs, suggesting it’s preparing for further gains, not a downturn.
The long-term picture looks strong. After finding support at $43,700, the Dow has been gaining momentum again towards its peak. The way the price is moving indicates it’s likely to continue rising. If it breaks above $45,017, that would trigger the next significant upward move. The overall trend remains positive, with the index making higher highs and higher lows, which is a classic sign of a healthy bull market.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 is leading the pack, up 24.64% for the year. This tech-focused index gained 2.37% in October alone.
The index is currently just 1.85% shy of its record high of $23,217, set on August 12th. Last week, it rose 0.27%, though Friday saw a slight 0.25% dip as some investors took profits. Overall, the trend remains very positive.
The Nasdaq is now consolidating after hitting resistance at $22,700. This level was support in August and is now acting as a ceiling. The price is holding above the $22,000 support level, which has proven strong. We expect a bounce from here, followed by another push to break the all-time high. A successful breakthrough could signal a new upward trend for tech stocks.
FTSE 100:
The FTSE 100 has delivered a strong 14.46% return so far this year, although October has been more subdued with only a 0.04% gain to date. The index currently sits 2.32% below its all-time high of 9577, reflecting some uncertainty in the UK market.
Last week’s performance was heavily influenced by Friday’s session, where the index fell 0.86%. It tested support around the 9276 level before bouncing back higher by the close. This rebound is a positive sign, suggesting the overall upward trend remains intact despite recent weakness. The FTSE has been in an uptrend since May, forming higher highs and higher lows. The current pullback seems to be finding support near the August high of 9357.
For the market to regain momentum, the rebound seen on Friday needs to continue into this week, with a key target being a break above the record high of 9577. As long as the pattern of higher highs and higher lows holds, this pullback is more likely a buying opportunity rather than a sign of a trend reversal.
PERFORMANCE REVIEW
American Express (AXP)
American Express is having a strong year in 2025, with its stock up 72.38% year-to-date. This strong performance shows solid business fundamentals and investor confidence. October added another 8.79% to these gains, and last week alone saw a 4.37% increase as buyers continue to push the stock higher.
On Friday, American Express rose 1.85%, reaching new levels. The company’s stock is now just 0.01% below its all-time high of $324.98, set on August 2nd. We are essentially at record levels.
The weekly chart reveals a strong uptrend since early summer, with consistent higher highs and higher lows. Breaking past the previous resistance at $310 suggests more gains are possible. What’s notable is that the stock is significantly outperforming the broader market.
Looking forward, earnings are due on November 5th, which could bring more volatility. The current momentum indicates a positive earnings surprise could drive the stock to new record highs. Meanwhile, its strong technical foundation offers support if results disappoint.
OUTPERFORMING ASSET FOR THE WATCHLIST
Cencora (COR)
Cencora is having an impressive year, up 27.08% in 2025. In October alone, the stock has gained 5.25%, accelerating into the fourth quarter. Last week contributed 3.85% to this monthly gain, with Friday seeing a 1.08% rise.
The stock is currently trading 4.91% below its all-time high of $266.99, set on September 12th. Despite this gap, recent price action suggests Cencora is preparing to challenge those highs again.
What makes Cencora notable now is its technical setup. The stock has moved past resistance at $252 and is now in a clear uptrend, with support around $251. The price trend over recent months shows consolidation followed by strong upward moves, typical for a stock being accumulated.
While the healthcare sector can sometimes trail the broader market, individual stocks showing this kind of strength deserve attention. Cencora appears to be setting up for its next rally, with an immediate goal of returning to its September highs. Breaking above $267 would confirm the uptrend and could lead to new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
Looking Ahead
55% percent of U.S. stocks are now trading above their 200-day moving average, up from 51% last week. This indicates that markets are stable following recent corrections and appear set to maintain the current bull trend.
Keep it simple. Keep it Sublime.
The ST Team
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